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Rangers continue road trip in Calgary against the Flames |
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The Rangers continue their four-game road trip in Calgary. Tonight in the second of three contests in Canada with a Saturday night matchup against the Oilers remaining. The Blueshirts face a Flames squad that is 7-3-0 at home, 5-3-2 overall in their 10 and won two in a row.
Lines versus Calgary:
Panarin - Trocheck - Laf
Kreider - Zib - Smith
Cuylle - Brodzinski - Kakko
Edström - Carrick - Vesey
Miller - Fox
Lindgren - Trouba
Jones - Schneider
Shesterkin
Quick
As you see, the lines today are the same as the last few games. Filip Chytil did join his teammates on the road today and skated separately from them. A such, he will not be in the lineup today, and it’s possible that he won’t dress at all on this trip.
One key to the three-game win streak, besides the back-to-back shutouts by Jonathan Quick, is the improved play of the “first” line. That trio is the reconstituted Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Reilly Smith unit. Separated due to their struggles, the time apart appears to have been beneficial to that unit now that they are back together, as they appear more comfortable and in sync with one another.
As Vince Mercogliano noted, “the numbers bear that out, with their line generating a 19-11 advantage in scoring chances and a 59.98% xGF in the past week, according to Natural Stat Trick. Kreider's goal on Tuesday was only his second 5v5 tally of the season, and he's still searching for his first assist in any capacity. Meanwhile, Smith and Zibanejad are up to six 5v5 points apiece, with five of those 12 combined points coming in the last three games.”
Zib has looked more like Zib, which has made a huge difference. I still need to see more from CK20 while Smith has been fine, not elite. But if the collective whole remains more than the sum of its individual parts, that works for me.
Dom Luszczyszyn presented 16 stats on the NHL. Two of the 16 concerned the Rangers. First was top-six worries. Second, the team’s soft initial schedule. On the first, hard to disagree, as it’s an area of concern that we have had and discussed. But we also know the upside potential, as noted above, exists where this could be obviated shortly. Plus, if the bottom six continues to do what they have done, that continues to take the pressure off the first two lines.
On the schedule, you can only play who is on your schedule at the time. Only 1/3 of the games are against likely playoff teams, which is a somewhat small sample. They struggled against Florida, which is no shame, and were brutal versus Winnipeg. New York was meh against Washington and rode goaltending to a win over Toronto. Concerns do exist, but I am not going overreact. Tonight’s game plus Saturday in Edmonton and Wednesday in Carolina will give us a truer sense of the squad’s make up and fortitude.
12. Top-six worries in New York
The Rangers’ underlying numbers look more formidable than usual, but that’s being entirely driven by the bottom six — all of whom rank ahead of the team’s top six in both xG and goals this season. That’s good news for the team’s depth, but the stars not shining at five-on-five is not ideal.
Across the board, all five returning members of the top six have seen considerable drops at five-on-five compared to last season.
Rangers’ big five 2023-24
xG with: 51.2 percent
Goals with: 52.8 percent
xG without: 44.9 percent
Goals without: 44.3 percent
Rangers’ big five 2024-25
xG with: 49.3 percent
Goals with: 45.4 percent
xG without: 60.5 percent
Goals without: 83.1 percent
Mika Zibanejad’s line has been an especially big problem here with Zibanejad’s xG percentage dropping to 44 percent on the season, one of the worst marks on the team. The Rangers have paid the price for it on the scoreboard, too, being outscored by a 13-8 margin.
That effect has at least been recognized by the coaching staff to the point that it may actually be unfair to call Zibanejad’s line the team’s second line. His minutes at five-on-five have been cut to 11.7 per game this year, eighth among forwards on the team and down from 13.1 per game last year.
13. Rangers’ soft schedule
What makes all that especially worrying? The Rangers have had the second easiest schedule so far with an average opponent Net Rating of minus-11.
Of New York’s 17 games, only six have come against likely playoff teams, where the Rangers have generally struggled. They’re taking care of business against the league’s weakerthans, but they’ll need to step it up against the better teams going forward. The five-on-five divide is noteworthy
Rangers vs. above-average teams (3-3-0)
xG: 40.1 percent
Goals: 40.7 percent
Rangers vs. below-average teams (9-1-1)
xG: 61.0 percent
Goals: 69.3 percent
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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