Wednesday November 23 - Vancouver Canucks 4 - Colorado Avalanche 3
Saturday November 26 - Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights - 7 p.m. - Sportsnet, City-TV, Hockey Night in Canada
We've hit American Thanksgiving, time to assess the playoff chances of teams around the National Hockey League.
I broke everything down in detail in this piece for Forbes SportsMoney:
Some interesting new teams in the mix, like Seattle and New Jersey — and it's certainly intriguing that Detroit is quietly holding down third place in the Atlantic Division under new coach Derek Lalonde.
The Canucks don't get a mention in that article, so let's dig a little deeper into their situation here.
Heading into Friday's games, Vancouver sits 12th in the Western Conference with a record of 7-10-3 for 17 points in 20 games. If you sort by points percentage, they get bumped down to 13th — Arizona has 16 points in 18 games played for .444, while the Canucks are at .425.
Going strictly by points, the Canucks are three points out of the second wild-card spot, which is currently held by St.Louis. But again, the Blues have played one fewer game that the Canucks. And the three teams between St. Louis and Vancouver also all have 20 points. Minnesota has the same record as St. Louis, but loses the tiebreaker based on fewer regulation wins. Edmonton and Nashville have each played 20 games, the same as Vancouver, so they're at exactly .500.
It's a logjam. And much like last year, Vancouver will likely find it very difficult to jump over all of those teams — when one squad plays badly enough to leapfrog, another is usually playing well.
It looks like
SportsClubStats has not yet updated its grid to show NHL playoff chances for the 2022-23 season.
MoneyPuck has the Canucks' playoff odds at 13.1%, while
Hockey Reference is a little more generous at 22.2%.
Of the teams that are currently on the bubble, they've got the Wild grabbing eighth place in the West with 90.2 points while the Oilers (88.5), Blues (86.7), Coyotes (86.5) and Predators (85.4) miss out. The Canucks are just below that, at a projected 84.5 points.
By comparison, Vancouver was 6-12-2 at this time last year — also with 20 games played, but with three fewer points, at 14. And last year, the separation in the West at Thanksgiving was significantly larger: wild-card teams Winnipeg had 22 points and Anaheim had 23, while Vegas was third in the Pacific with 24. By season's end, the Canucks had passed the Jets and the Ducks and finished two points behind the Golden Knights — also outside the postseason with 94 points compared to the Canucks' 92.
A playoff bar of 90 points in the West is lower than usual. Two forces could be causing that: Eastern teams dominating and taking points to their own conference, and/or a higher number of games being decided in regulation, which would add fewer loser points to the system.
ESPN has an option to look at teams' records by division/conference opponent. At first glance, it looks like Boston and New Jersey have single-handedly skewed these numbers. Both teams are perfect against Western Conference foes so far this season — including the Canucks, of course. The Devils are 9-0-0 and the Bruins are 8-0-0.
And while Eastern Conference teams have put a total of 34 loser points into the system so far this season through overtime losses, that number is 30 in the West. That's not a huge difference, so it looks like both these elements are contributing to the discrepancy.
Hockey Reference is estimating that the second wild-card team in the East, Carolina, will need 93.1 points to get into the playoffs and that the Rangers (92.4) and the Panthers (91.4) will be left on the outside.
Though the shouts from the fanbase for a rebuild are growing louder and louder, these numbers suggest that Canucks are in a better position than they were last year to make a run for the postseason. And certainly, their current defense makes it seem questionable that they could do any damage if they get there. But just imagine for a second if Thatcher Demko gets back to being the goalie we know and the forwards start making those commitments that Luke Schenn is asking for, getting tougher to play against. I'm not saying it will happen. But after a rousing win over the defending Stanley Cup champions on Wednesday night, and with the trade market jammed up with so many teams already in long-term injured reserve, the Canucks might be forced to stay the course — and could very well find that they're still in the mix as the trade deadline draws near.
And there are some good things that have happened this season. Bo Horvat scored his 16th of the year on Wednesday in Denver. And Connor McDavid has just one goal in his last five games, so the Go Auto pitchmen are now both tied with Jason Robertson atop the NHL's goal-scoring race. Elias Pettersson is tied with Jesper Bratt for 13th in the points race, with a career-best 1.2 points per game for 24 points in 20 games so far. Sheldon Dries is making it tough to take him out of the lineup as he continues to play effective, responsible hockey — and was rewarded with the game-tying goal against his old team on Wednesday night. He's still only averaging just over 10 minutes of ice time a game, but he's up to five points in nine games and is at 50.6% efficiency in the face-off circle. His best previous NHL campaign was his rookie year with the Avalanche, where he put up 3-3-6 in 40 games in 2018-19.
The Ethan Bear project also seems to be paying dividends. He picked up two points on Wednesday, including the game-winning goal, and he's a plus-one in his 11 games with the Canucks. Vancouver was 2-5-2 before his arrival, and 5-5-1 since Bear joined the team.
Wednesday also marked the first time all season that the Canucks earned points in a game where they trailed after two periods. They're now 1-6-0 in that situation for the year. Is that the kind of milestone that can become a turning point?
After getting out of chilly Denver, it looks like the players enjoyed a day off at Shadow Creek Golf Course in Vegas on Thursday, with the Golden Knights up next on the agenda on Saturday. After taking care of Vancouver on Monday, Vegas easily dispatched Ottawa by a 4-1 score on Wednesday and will host Seattle for a 5 p.m. game on Friday before seeing the Canucks.
Nothing definite yet on goaltenders for Friday's game. But if Logan Thompson gets the start against Seattle, Vancouver would get Adin Hill on Saturday. Hill is 5-1-1 this season with Vegas, with a solid .909 save percentage and 2.55 goals-against average but in his career, he's 0-2-0 against Vancouver, with a save percentage of .887 and a 3.02 GAA.
Enjoy the game!
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • 
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