It's not about ADB not having talent or NOT WANTING him to succeed, but I remember when Saad was first called up and the Hawks marketing machine ran it down your throat to the point that you wanted him to suck. I think JJ is holding off on drinking McD's kool aid. Lets see at game 40 what this kid is doing and bringing every night before we crown him a glistening prospect.

Think the point JJ is trying to make is that we shouldn't all just be focused on the performance of ADB when, despite the record, there appear to be some issues with the core itself. The shot issues are a continuation of a problem from last year, so probably not the fault of any new arrivals.
- BINGO!

Isn't this a real reason why looking at stats is really not that important? Based on stats, this team should be 0-4.

I've said I like him, here and elsewhere. And even if I didn't, is that worth getting upset about? No, it isn't.

I think he has talent. I am also on the fence about where he should be playing this year.

I hear people talk about how hard it is for a teenager to make it playing for Q–for sure, and to his credit "he made it." Which I HAVE said here, by the way.

So again, the "exhaustive inventory" of what I've said or haven't is a bit unfair, because you're also inaccurate. And not the point.

I will just say this, the turnovers he's made are the kinds of things that gets a guy down the bench with Q, and then stapled to it, and then down in Rockford. Question is, will he learn, or will it continue? I'm certain, they're watching that, as they should. And if he is sent down, doesn't (at all) mean he won't be back at some point.

Not sure why that sentiment, which I HAVE expressed pretty consistently, is so offensive.

My other point, that I think some took umbrage to, is the "obsession" with ADB obscures the discussion about the team, which also appears to be a mixed bag.

3-0-1, which is great, but WAY upside down in shots the last couple of games. Sound familiar? It should, same problem as the last two years. "But, but . . . regular season wins, first in the West." And out of the playoffs in the first round.

THAT to me is the story, not the endless tire pumping of ADB. Or my being "unfair."
- John Jaeckel

As was mentioned during camp/preseason, there is the 10-game rule that would allow the Blackhawks to defer the 19 year old DeBrincat's ELC for another year, correct? Interested to see how that plays out.

What makes you think he knows more than anyone else about hockey? Just because he writes a blog and talks about sources doesnt mean he knows more than anyone else.
- BlazinMike

It's an O-P-I-N-I-O-N of mine, which I'm allowed.

Like my opinion that you're kind of thin skinned

And my opinion that you definitely don't know anything I'd care to learn or know about

Isn't this a real reason why looking at stats is really not that important? Based on stats, this team should be 0-4.
- powerenforcer

Possession stats last year pointed out the Hawks weren't as great as their record

It's not about ADB not having talent or NOT WANTING him to succeed, but I remember when Saad was first called up and the Hawks marketing machine ran it down your throat to the point that you wanted him to suck. I think JJ is holding off on drinking McD's kool aid. Lets see at game 40 what this kid is doing and bringing every night before we crown him a glistening prospect.
- nickmo2699

Three recently big Hawks prospects that JJ has had his reservations about...Saad, Teuvo, and ADB. and all rightfully so. He writes from an objective perspective, not a fan boy. He writes from both the glass is half full and half empty point of view. I understand where he is coming from.

ADB looks ultra-talented. But he also has flaws that must be improved- like all young players and rookies. The Hawks are 3-0-1 and have looked great. They have also looked awful at moments. I think he is saying lets let this team play 25 more games to get a better idea of who they are.

Still would love to see them land Duchene. If it meant a package that starts with Anisimov and Hartman, make the move.

Thanks for the blogs, JJ.

What makes you think you know anything about me or "sources" I 'talk about.' What gives you the right to make me the topic, and not hockey?

Oh wait, I forgot. It's never about you.

Maybe you should stop defaming people with your firm's computers and network. You're a smart guy, figure that one out.
- John Jaeckel

Two mistakes:

1. I didnt bring up the topic
2. I'm not smart

Not sure what my computer or network has anything to do with this. Are you hacking me?

Isn't this a real reason why looking at stats is really not that important? Based on stats, this team should be 0-4.
- powerenforcer

Well maybe more like 2-2, but really the stats are showing that the Hawks are letting teams push back and the Hawks aren't playing a full 60 minutes.

Against Toronto, the Hawks came out of the gate much better and got the lead, but they didn't contain the pushback from the Leafs. They had a slow start against Montreal, then played a good 20-30 minutes in the middle, and allowed a late game flurry form Montreal. If the Hawks were the ones chasing the score, the shot metrics would likely be reversed somewhat.

Possession stats last year pointed out the Hawks weren't as great as their record
- Hawkjet

Eh, they were 12th in the league possession wise. not that bad.

Isn't this a real reason why looking at stats is really not that important? Based on stats, this team should be 0-4.
- powerenforcer

No.... they're an indicator of how your team is actually playing. The idea is that if you do the right things the results will come. If you're not doing the right things and still getting results, well, you can expect that those results are going to give up at some point.

You can build a house with half the number of nails you should actually have, but it's going to fall apart at some point.

Isn't this a real reason why looking at stats is really not that important? Based on stats, this team should be 0-4.
- powerenforcer

Only if you don't know anything about stats.

It's an O-P-I-N-I-O-N of mine, which I'm allowed.

Like my opinion that you're kind of thin skinned

And my opinion that you definitely don't know anything I'd care to learn or know about
- Hawkjet

This escalated quickly. No need for name calling. If everyone is entitled to their own opinion then why revert to name calling?

This escalated quickly. No need for name calling. If everyone is entitled to their own opinion then why revert to name calling?
- BlazinMike

There is a bit of double speak in that comment. "Hey, we're all just friends here, lets calm down... but (frank) you!"

Isn't this a real reason why looking at stats is really not that important? Based on stats, this team should be 0-4.
- powerenforcer

Kinda. Depends on where shots originate. We've seen the hawks take 40 shots in one game, but most were harmless attempts from the perimeter or right into the goalies chest. Stats give a clue about how it's' trending but are not the tell all that some make them out to be. Especially in the NHL, where stats are compiled by a guy using a computer and most importantly a mouse. When mouse clicking the stats guy has his head down and is missing what's going on at that moment. Other guys chip in and try to cover, but they never get it all. There is a lot of subjectiveness and in some cases homerism to skew things a bit. Historically there has always been pressure on the stats guys to see things a certain way. I respect LBR and the passion it takes for her way of presenting her stats as well as others who try. But all you have to do is look at the Florida Panthers to see that pure stats are not the answer.

As was mentioned during camp/preseason, there is the 10-game rule that would allow the Blackhawks to defer the 19 year old DeBrincat's ELC for another year, correct? Interested to see how that plays out.
- matt_ahrens

Chicago management has shown a trend of not wanting to utilize such rules if they don't have too. They make a point to try to maximize their players earnings and are happy to "burn" years off the players ELC's for loyalty and to get the college ones to keep from hitting free agency (see Hayden). Also ADB is playing well enough to make the team and will probably be needed for more than 6 more games this year, so it doesn't make sense to send him down.
I like the idea of 3 lines that can score and enough top 9 forwards for Q to blend, come playoff time. Lets build some chemistry with our high octane scoring forwards while we have Oct/Nov/Dec to see what we have.

EDIT: I don't know whether or not ADB actually applies to that, I think it was mentioned in a previous thread about teh 10 rule being for his contract to slide if they send him back to Jrs for a 4th year. Its closer to 24 games if they send him to the AHL (he's eligible) I think. Someone want to clarify?

Eh, they were 12th in the league possession wise. not that bad.
- JRoenick97

I meant not first-in-the-Western-conference good

They did seem to be overachieving considering many stats they used to be dominant in

I meant not first-in-the-Western-conference good

They did seem to be overachieving considering many stats they used to be dominant in
- Hawkjet

Thanks to Crow.

Possession stats last year pointed out the Hawks weren't as great as their record
- Hawkjet

Not really directed at you, but possession stats never tell the whole story. Sure it can be a good predictor and large differences in possession are more meaningful, but there is so much more to the game. I think that the style of play can make it misleading and sometimes you have players that don't need a large volume of shot attempts to make a difference in a game.

I think part of what helped the Hawks last year, guys like AA, Panarin, Panik, Hossa all had great shooting % and didn't need a ton of shots directed at the net to be 4 of the top 5 goal scorers on the team.

There is a bit of double speak in that comment. "Hey, we're all just friends here, lets calm down... but (frank) you!"
- JRoenick97

No double-speak

Just the (frank) you

Possession stats last year pointed out the Hawks weren't as great as their record
- Hawkjet

Shot attempt possession had the Hawks as 12th overall and 10th in the last 20. Consdiering the top 10-15 were all much closer than in years past, their record was decently in line with their underlying numbers. Yeah, they rode good goaltending to move them above a few teams that had average tenders, but last year's team was good (not great) and improved as the season progressed. That's what shot metric numbers tell you - high level trends on how a team is performing and may perform in the future (though probablility is not an exact science obvs, there are always exceptions).

Any stats person worth poop is going to start at shots and then dig deeper (quality, xGF), add context (score adjusted, for example), etc. It's true that historically team have had specific CF% numbers to go far / win in the playoffs but there's more to stats that pure shot attempt numbers.

Not really directed at you, but possession stats never tell the whole story. Sure it can be a good predictor and large differences in possession are more meaningful, but there is so much more to the game. I think that the style of play can make it misleading and sometimes you have players that don't need a large volume of shot attempts to make a difference in a game.

I think part of what helped the Hawks last year, guys like AA, Panarin, Panik, Hossa all had great shooting % and didn't need a ton of shots directed at the net to be 4 of the top 5 goal scorers on the team.
- breadbag

I think his point was they were and indicator that the Hawks had some flaws, and those got greatly exposed by Nashville.

Only if you don't know anything about stats.
- L_B_R

I know enough about stats that people can use them to point to their own agendas too. Does that make them always right? Just sayin.

Not really directed at you, but possession stats never tell the whole story. Sure it can be a good predictor and large differences in possession are more meaningful, but there is so much more to the game. I think that the style of play can make it misleading and sometimes you have players that don't need a large volume of shot attempts to make a difference in a game.

I think part of what helped the Hawks last year, guys like AA, Panarin, Panik, Hossa all had great shooting % and didn't need a ton of shots directed at the net to be 4 of the top 5 goal scorers on the team.
- breadbag

I think stats can add a layer of understanding and an objective element to watching the game

But, as LBR said, possession stats don't tell the whole story, and she's someone I would trust to give the best information on that topic

Well maybe more like 2-2, but really the stats are showing that the Hawks are letting teams push back and the Hawks aren't playing a full 60 minutes.

Against Toronto, the Hawks came out of the gate much better and got the lead, but they didn't contain the pushback from the Leafs. They had a slow start against Montreal, then played a good 20-30 minutes in the middle, and allowed a late game flurry form Montreal. If the Hawks were the ones chasing the score, the shot metrics would likely be reversed somewhat.
- breadbag

I think some of this had to do with the fact that it was the Habs home opener and they had something to prove, not to mention, the hawks having played a game the night before.

I meant not first-in-the-Western-conference good

They did seem to be overachieving considering many stats they used to be dominant in
- Hawkjet

Yep.

excluding last season, AA has a career average of .479 points per game.

Last year he was at .703.

Everybody knows that's not right. You all know that that level of production is way beyond where he should be. He got lucky. If he didn't, why do people want to trade him for someone younger?