I know enough about stats that people can use them to point to their own agendas too. Does that make them always right? Just sayin.
- powerenforcer

I reiterate: you don't know enough about stats. If you did, you could look at whatever agenda someone presents and be able to tell if it was worth while. Just because some people misuse stats doesn't mean the stats / numbers themselves are wrong - they're just data and you have to be able to discern what is valuable in them.

For example, I think WAR/GAR are flawed partially because the creators add in subjective standards to tweak it based on their own opinion of a handful of players and then think it can be applied across the board. It inherently has too much subjectivity for me. There are other stats, like game score, that do a better job of weeding out bias.

Edit to add: not knowing enough about stats is not a knock on anyone btw. It's not a requirement for watching, liking, or understanding hockey. They're just a tool to use in conjuction with watching but is not a requirement. So, this was not meant to be an insult at all just pointing out that most base level stats are as neutral as they can be and how people misuse them shouldn't impact how you personally view stats.

Shot attempt possession had the Hawks as 12th overall and 10th in the last 20. Consdiering the top 10-15 were all much closer than in years past, their record was decently in line with their underlying numbers. Yeah, they rode good goaltending to move them above a few teams that had average tenders, but last year's team was good (not great) and improved as the season progressed. That's what shot metric numbers tell you - high level trends on how a team is performing and may perform in the future (though probablility is not an exact science obvs, there are always exceptions).

Any stats person worth poop is going to start at shots and then dig deeper (quality, xGF), add context (score adjusted, for example), etc. It's true that historically team have had specific CF% numbers to go far / win in the playoffs but there's more to stats that pure shot attempt numbers.
- L_B_R

Yep. So grateful to have Tulsky.

On another topic: thanks, Jack Johnson, #8 out for another game at least

Yep.

excluding last season, AA has a career average of .479 points per game.

Last year he was at .703.

Everybody knows that's not right. You all know that that level of production is way beyond where he should be. He got lucky. If he didn't, why do people want to trade him for someone younger?
- BINGO!

Hmm Anisimov did not get lucky - Anisimov started shooting from much closer to the net. Shot quantity vs quality vs location. Whether Anisimov will be able to continue taking shots from that location may not be repeatable but it's not accurate to call it luck.

Hossa, he was more lucky - less shot attempts from a similar distance than normal. Better quality shot types? Possible but hard to quantify.

I think stats can add a layer of understanding and an objective element to watching the game

But, as LBR said, possession stats don't tell the whole story, and she's someone I would trust to give the best information on that topic
- Hawkjet

Okay, that is pretty much exactly what I was just adding with my comment. Like I said, not directed at you, just adding some color that possession stats aren't everything.

Some players and teams do more with less. No harm if you don't trust my statement about it.

Hmm Anisimov did not get lucky - Anisimov started shooting from much closer to the net. Shot quantity vs quality vs location. Whether Anisimov will be able to continue taking shots from that location may not be repeatable but it's not accurate to call it luck.
- L_B_R

Alright well I'll admit I didn't look that far into it so I'll trust you on that one.

Okay, that is pretty much exactly what I was just adding with my comment. Like I said, not directed at you, just adding some color that possession stats aren't everything.

Some players and teams do more with less. No harm if you don't trust my statement about it.
- breadbag

Your statement was pretty in line with mine. Shot attempts tell the first part of a story but we all know there's more to hockey than shots. The reason shot attempts tends to be predictive is because typically more shots means more probility for a shot to go in. Attempts typically also mean higher chance for soem quality shots to happen, even if they're not that high a share of the total attempt number. However, some teams can be successful with lower SAT numbers by taking higher quality shots or shooting from in closer. Sometimes game SAT numbers are impacted by score effects - a team gets a lead and then sits on it, allowing the other team to shoot a lot, which happened a lot for the Hawks last year. There are a lot of variables in hockey that SAT alone cannot account for, but it's a great starting point for trends and predictability.

I will say, I've started to make sure to always clarifiy that we're talking about shot metric possession and not just use possession anymore. Shots are a stand-in for possession because we don't have any better way to quanitfy it since we know timed possession has a lot of flaws. Sometimes shot metrics can be described as 'meaningful possession' as well. Some stats people don't even like saying possession anymore period.

Montreal sports writers pretty salty about Debrincat (and Bergevin):

https://www.google.ca/amp...t-in-canadiens-wounds/amp

Okay, that is pretty much exactly what I was just adding with my comment. Like I said, not directed at you, just adding some color that possession stats aren't everything.

Some players and teams do more with less. No harm if you don't trust my statement about it.
- breadbag

Didn't mean to imply anything, we're on the same page

\.
- L_B_R

Good explanation thanks.

If more stats proponents/abusers took that into account there would be a lot less useless arguing over the internet.

Still no word on Schmaltz?

Still no word on Schmaltz?
- SimpleJack

Shattered pelvis.

Shattered pelvis.
- BINGO!

Whiplash eh

Still no word on Schmaltz?
- SimpleJack

Out today, maybe Saturday he'll play

It was about 40 years ago when Bill White was coaching the hawks for a half season or so. I was called into a meeting with White and the supervisor of officials. He didn't give a poop about the NHL stats that he was given a copy of. He wanted a stat that wasn't done at that time. All he wanted was a diagram of the rink. When a shot occured the players number was written on the paper from the spot where he took the shot. If it was a goal the number was circled. At a glance it told the story. To this day I haven't seen a better way to get a handle on things between periods. Back in the day there wasn't as much line juggling as today. So when he would see the opposing player with a shot he already knew who he had playing against him. The hardest part was running the diagram down to the dressing room immediately. In the old building it was about 25 steps up and then 105 down to the main floor and then about another 20 to the basement dodging the crowd in the hallways and dodging the venders reloading in the basement. Had to miss the beer & soda guys cuz you would get all wet, so knocked a few popcorn guys on their asses in the process. Sorry guys.

Turns out White was ahead of his time. Today that particular stat is kept. But to support my mouse clicking thing from before, the type of shot is also noted so it takes more time to enter. More time looking down is less time looking up. It is really tough to be really good doing NHL stats the way they are done today.

It's sounding a lot like the Saad debate in his rookie year. Why the rush to determine if ADB is either headed for the HOF or Rockford. I think we need a little larger sample size.

It's sounding a lot like the Saad debate in his rookie year. Why the rush to determine if ADB is either headed for the HOF or Rockford. I think we need a little larger sample size.


- jhawk159

Well, the Cat is certainly better than Teuvo Time

Hmm Anisimov did not get lucky - Anisimov started shooting from much closer to the net. Shot quantity vs quality vs location. Whether Anisimov will be able to continue taking shots from that location may not be repeatable but it's not accurate to call it luck.

Hossa, he was more lucky - less shot attempts from a similar distance than normal. Better quality shot types? Possible but hard to quantify.
- L_B_R

How about nursing an upper body injury which inhibited his ability to shoot hard. Just played through it like the pro he is (was). I'm thinking that might explain some of it.

It's sounding a lot like the Saad debate in his rookie year. Why the rush to determine if ADB is either headed for the HOF or Rockford. I think we need a little larger sample size.


- jhawk159

Exactly...I think even JJ was pointing out good things and bad things that Saad was doing his rookie year...wasn't bashing him by any means...and that is the vibe I am getting with ADB as well.

I honestly don't care if someone likes, or dislikes a player, I usually check to see what someone who likes a certain player says, and then what another person who dislikes the same player says...then I watch the player and come up with my own conclusion

Can't believe I've grown up...if I was 20 I'd be bashing and hailing a whole poopload more....I think I've matured... this sucks

And honestly...what has me pissed more than the ADB ''hate'' from JJ is......

NO RECAP....really? wth JJ?

Are you perhaps so giddy over dat dere Trubelinksy guy dat you can't come up wit a recap of the Hocks Abs game from dee otter day?


Daaaa Bears!!!

Well, the Cat is certainly better than Teuvo Time
- Hawkjet

Probably, yeah, but let's hold off on that one until he's played at least... I dunno, 10 NHL games?

Probably, yeah, but let's hold off on that one until he's played at least... I dunno, 10 NHL games?
- BINGO!

No. Right now.

Still no word on Schmaltz?
- SimpleJack

Not playing tonight, "upper body" injury/situation. Hopefully the team is just being cautious given their current record and considering it's still very early in the season.

Hopefully when Schmaltz comes back he continues to play like he did (minus the injuries). That 38-8-88 line is certainly fun to watch.

Connor Murphy back on tonight. Oesterle and Franson the likely scratches.

— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) October 12, 2017

Connor Murphy back on tonight. Oesterle and Franson the likely scratches.

— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) October 12, 2017

- DarthKane

Is Osterle on a one way? Otherwise why have him sitting everynight?