HockeyBuzz Hotstove: Thoughts On The Matthews Extension

No Matthews deal headline on HB!?! Is EK still working on the big non-existent Nylander to Isles rumors?

No Matthews deal headline on HB!?! Is EK still working on the big non-existent Nylander to Isles rumors?

Does seem odd.

Dominoes

Boston Pizza
- bullethead7

Fixed

Weird contract. Great deal for the Leafs with basically no risk on their end. Not sure why Matthews was cool with it. Pretty big risk on his end since he's leaving 50+ million on the table, and he probably won't get much of a raise, if any, on his next contract unless he keeps it short again. I guess it was more important to have the freedom to change teams while he's still an impact player.

I matthews extension

Weird contract. Great deal for the Leafs with basically no risk on their end. Not sure why Matthews was cool with it. Pretty big risk on his end since he's leaving 50+ million on the table, and he probably won't get much of a raise, if any, on his next contract unless he keeps it short again. I guess it was more important to have the freedom to change teams while he's still an impact player.
- Squeaky

Quite the opposite. He signed a short deal because once JT is off the books, he's gonna get a big slice of that. Its all about $$ with AM34.

He knows tickets sales are because of him.
He knows jersey sales are because of him.

He's got all the leverage.
he made sure to have a no trade clause so Tor then can't trade him for assets in his last year. So they either have to continue to pay him or lose him for nothing.

he has Tor by the balls.

Quite the opposite. He signed a short deal because once JT is off the books, he's gonna get a big slice of that. Its all about $$ with AM34.

He knows tickets sales are because of him.
He knows jersey sales are because of him.

He's got all the leverage.
he made sure to have a no trade clause so Tor then can't trade him for assets in his last year. So they either have to continue to pay him or lose him for nothing.

he has Tor by the balls.
- Leniwm1

Yeah Toronto would never sell a ticket or another jersey without him and there are zero other teams in the league that would want him for that amount talk about a hosing.

Quite the opposite. He signed a short deal because once JT is off the books, he's gonna get a big slice of that. Its all about $$ with AM34.

He knows tickets sales are because of him.
He knows jersey sales are because of him.

He's got all the leverage.
he made sure to have a no trade clause so Tor then can't trade him for assets in his last year. So they either have to continue to pay him or lose him for nothing.

he has Tor by the balls.
- Leniwm1

You picture Toronto’s balls?

Quite the opposite. He signed a short deal because once JT is off the books, he's gonna get a big slice of that. Its all about $$ with AM34.

He knows tickets sales are because of him.
He knows jersey sales are because of him.

He's got all the leverage.
he made sure to have a no trade clause so Tor then can't trade him for assets in his last year. So they either have to continue to pay him or lose him for nothing.

he has Tor by the balls.
- Leniwm1

How will he have them any more or less by the balls than he did a few days ago? If it was all about money, he would've asked for 13, 14, 15 million a year for eight years. He knows they have to give it to him. If he doesn't score 200 goals over the next five years and injuries start piling up, it becomes a lot easier to walk away from a 15 million-a-year demand. If it's about getting a bigger chunk when Tavares is gone, why make the extension as long as he did?

And you know he plays for the Leafs, right? Matthews has zero impact on their ticket sales. They could trade him tomorrow for Walker Duehr, retain 50% of the contract, and still sell out every game for the next 5 years.

How will he have them any more or less by the balls than he did a few days ago? If it was all about money, he would've asked for 13, 14, 15 million a year for eight years. He knows they have to give it to him. If he doesn't score 200 goals over the next five years and injuries start piling up, it becomes a lot easier to walk away from a 15 million-a-year demand. If it's about getting a bigger chunk when Tavares is gone, why make the extension as long as he did?

And you know he plays for the Leafs, right? Matthews has zero impact on their ticket sales. They could trade him tomorrow for Walker Duehr, retain 50% of the contract, and still sell out every game for the next 5 years.
- Squeaky

He's betting on himself. Because the cap is currently sitting at 83.5m, but expected to jump by increments of $5m over the next several years as it levels out revenue sharing post-COVID, post-escrow repayment and post new TV deals - and his 15.9% Cap hit, if renewed at that rate, would be $16.3m.

If he suffers an injury or fails to perform, then yes, he loses that bet - but that's the bet he's making: he can do better on his next deal by keeping this one shorter.

McD’s 8yr contract of $100 ($12.5aav) kicked in during the 2018-19 season. The cap was $75. McD’s contract ate up 16.67% of the cap for that season that it began in.

Let’s assume that AM would have agreed to sign an 8yr contract in 2019 for the same cap% as McD. The salary cap went up to $81.5. That means AM would be signing an $108.67 ($13.58 aav) deal.

Instead the way this has worked out the Leafs have got AM for 9 years (after his ELC) expired) for a total of $111.2…….that’s an aav of $12.35 over that same span.

The only reason we see some turmoil is because the world stopped for 3 years after those deals were signed and caused a cap crunch which was not expected by anyone in the league at the time. Still works out great for the Leafs

Weird contract. Great deal for the Leafs with basically no risk on their end. Not sure why Matthews was cool with it. Pretty big risk on his end since he's leaving 50+ million on the table, and he probably won't get much of a raise, if any, on his next contract unless he keeps it short again. I guess it was more important to have the freedom to change teams while he's still an impact player.
- Squeaky

There is a bunch of risk for the Leafs on this deal.

Best natural goal scorer in the league?

Did Oveckin retire?

Best natural goal scorer in the league?

Did Oveckin retire?
- Shrike

Ovi is still the reigning sniper king, but he is in his twilight years. He might reach Gretzky's record, but I doubt he will win any more Rocket trophies.

Ovi is still the reigning sniper king, but he is in his twilight years. He might reach Gretzky's record, but I doubt he will win any more Rocket trophies.
- GalacticStone

I don't think "might" is a word that fits that conversation anymore, he's going to reach it. It's just a matter of how quickly at this point.

He's 72 goals back from Gretzky, all he needs to average over the last three years of his deal is 24g per year. Depending on how he performs this year, he might even do it the season after.

I don't think "might" is a word that fits that conversation anymore, he's going to reach it. It's just a matter of how quickly at this point.

He's 72 goals back from Gretzky, all he needs to average over the last three years of his deal is 24g per year. Depending on how he performs this year, he might even do it the season after.
- eichiefs9

He's going to be 38 when the season starts. I'm not expecting it to happen but he wouldn't be the first player to hit a wall with age and drop off dramatically in production. Injuries can also happen.

He's going to be 38 when the season starts. I'm not expecting it to happen but he wouldn't be the first player to hit a wall with age and drop off dramatically in production. Injuries can also happen.
- MJL

Yes of course that could happen, but he hasn't slowed down all that much. I'm not saying I expect him to pot 50 again this year, but he's one season removed from doing exactly that. He had 42 last year and if his production dropped all the way to 30 over the next two years then he'd still clear Gretzky easily in the final year of his deal.

Short of a catastrophic injury, I don't see any way he doesn't get there. And even if he didn't do it by the end of his contract I would put money on him continuing to play until he got there if he were reasonably close.

Best natural goal scorer in the league?

Did Oveckin retire?
- Shrike

Gretz is still the reigning sniper king until Ovi surpasses him…which we all expect could happen as early as the 2024-25 season.

It’s like saying McD is the best player in the league. Obviously the commentor would be speaking in present day terms or else ppl would be clamouring that Gretz is still king. Not a stretch to suggest that Matthews is the best goal scorer in the league for the last 6-7 years.

Nobody, including Ovi, has scored more goals than Matthews since the 2016-17 season.

How will he have them any more or less by the balls than he did a few days ago? If it was all about money, he would've asked for 13, 14, 15 million a year for eight years. He knows they have to give it to him. If he doesn't score 200 goals over the next five years and injuries start piling up, it becomes a lot easier to walk away from a 15 million-a-year demand. If it's about getting a bigger chunk when Tavares is gone, why make the extension as long as he did?

And you know he plays for the Leafs, right? Matthews has zero impact on their ticket sales. They could trade him tomorrow for Walker Duehr, retain 50% of the contract, and still sell out every game for the next 5 years.
- Squeaky

What I meant by him having Toronto by the balls is because of the NTC. If Toronto wanted to trade him, they can't unless he approves. If he doesn't approve then he will hit UFA and they get no assets. Or an alternative is to keep him but resign him at the higher rate. Win for AM.

When the cap goes up, that, extra cap is just going to the best players on the team. It won't do poop for depth players. Win for AM.

Also, will Tor want to lose all those Jersey sales?

By letting him walk and not getting assets, they lose on a few different fronts.

So it seems like AM does have all the leverage in his corner as of now. But who knows what the landscape will be in 4 yrs.

Also, someone on YouTube video had a good point. A 4 yr deal isnt really great from a team pov, if you are trying to build a team around a certain player. 8 yr deals are great because you can see into the future 8 yrs later, know the cap and know how to divy the money. But with a short deal, you can't plan long-term success for cup. Jersey hit the nail on the head with this. All long term deals, so Fitz can build a team for long-term success.

Also, someone on YouTube video had a good point. A 4 yr deal isnt really great from a team pov, if you are trying to build a team around a certain player. 8 yr deals are great because you can see into the future 8 yrs later, know the cap and know how to divy the money. But with a short deal, you can't plan long-term success for cup. Jersey hit the nail on the head with this. All long term deals, so Fitz can build a team for long-term success.
- Leniwm1

That's nonsense too. They're not in the build-a-team phase. The team is built. The money available also isn't changing if Matthews was signed to eight years. They're going to be trying for the best possible roster every year for the next five years.

That's nonsense too. They're not in the build-a-team phase. The team is built. The money available also isn't changing if Matthews was signed to eight years. They're going to be trying for the best possible roster every year for the next five years.
- Squeaky

How is the team built when JT and Marner are coming off books soon or need new deals. Nylsnder needs a contract or a new home. You only have AM for 4 yrs. To me that's hardly a team built for long term success. Too many variables in a short time. It def looks like they are in a build a team mode as weird as that is to say for a perennial playoff team.

How is the team built when JT and Marner are coming off books soon or need new deals. Nylsnder needs a contract or a new home. You only have AM for 4 yrs. To me that's hardly a team built for long term success. Too many variables in a short time. It def looks like they are in a build a team mode as weird as that is to say for a perennial playoff team.
- Leniwm1

I'm not sure what kind of interest they'll have in re-signing Tavares once that deal is over. He'll be 35 at that point and would likely have to take a decent sized pay cut if he wanted to stay there.

I'm not sure what kind of interest they'll have in re-signing Tavares once that deal is over. He'll be 35 at that point and would likely have to take a decent sized pay cut if he wanted to stay there.
- eichiefs9

Impossible to tell. It all depends on what his contributions have been points and otherwise. I would guess he is still a 45-50 point guy and signings 3 more years in Toronto at like 5M.