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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: A Look at the Week Ahead (Sept. 25 to Oct. 2)
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MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Sep 25 @ 12:28 PM ET
My understanding is that KHL rink sizes are similar to the NHL.
- Flyers_01



Yes, the majority of KHL teams play on NHL sized rinks.
mikeyo27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2014

Sep 25 @ 12:35 PM ET
Huh?

EDIT: I have no idea what you are saying. What is shown on that graph is described by the header over the graph.🤔🤔

- PT21


All a graph is, is a visual depiction of underlying data. What’s the underlying data? Who collected it? What was the methodology? Whose graph is it? A graph pulled off the internet or anywhere else hardly tells an accurate story if the data isn’t sound.

So, again, what’s the methodology behind that graph?
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Sep 25 @ 12:36 PM ET
Much like many cities in the US, Canada changed how criminals are punished, cashless bail system.
- WhiskeyMan


I hate when convicted felons are out on bail pending sentencing.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Sep 25 @ 12:36 PM ET
Yes, the majority of KHL teams play on NHL sized rinks.
- MBFlyerfan


The "rink size" argument is a red herring when it comes to Fedotov's play.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Sep 25 @ 12:39 PM ET
Hmmm, I don't see any evidence of what you are saying. Seems to be a pretty hard decline over the years, and then some fluctuation around the lower mean. Much lower than during the Conservative years.

EDIT: This is overall crime, but it is the same for any kind of crime I checked. Property, homicide, violent crime and so on.

- PT21


There is no deterrence and a revolving door with no cash bail for those that steal cars. I suspect that you don’t live here in Canada however it’s well known that there is an epidemic of vehicle theft especially in the gta and Montreal. The cars are stolen, shipped overseas in shipping containers with many ending up in Africa.

Here’s a link to the story I was referring to.

https://canoe.com/news/lo...95-4194-8c4e-cd57c3172c58

WhiskeyMan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 04.27.2018

Sep 25 @ 12:39 PM ET
Hmmm, I don't see any evidence of what you are saying. Seems to be a pretty hard decline over the years, and then some fluctuation around the lower mean. Much lower than during the Conservative years.

EDIT: This is overall crime, but it is the same for any kind of crime I checked. Property, homicide, violent crime and so on.

- PT21


Down here, crimes that were crime a few years ago are no longer crimes. In California you can steal up to $950 without being charged with a felony. You get caught, no cash bail, get out and steal again.

In Philadelphia police can no longer stop drivers for low level traffic offenses. They are considered racist.

So any chart like you showed are worthless. Crimes are no longer crimes, crimes are racist so laws are not enforced or are deleted . City governments report what. they want to report. Some areas in Canada like Ontario and Quebec have seen a 50% increase in stolen cars, a car is stolen every 6 minutes.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Sep 25 @ 12:40 PM ET
My understanding is that KHL rink sizes are similar to the NHL.
- Flyers_01


I understood that it was a mix but that there were mostly Olympic sized ice. If that info is wrong and that they are all nhl sized then that’s very concerning because he seemed lost on angles many times.
corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

Sep 25 @ 12:41 PM ET
Down here, crimes that were crime a few years ago are no longer crimes. In California you can steal up to $950 without being charged with a felony. You get caught, no cash bail, get out and steal again.

In Philadelphia police can no longer stop drivers for low level traffic offenses. They are considered racist.

So any chart like you showed are worthless. Crimes are no longer crimes, crimes are racist so laws are not enforced or are deleted . City governments report what. they want to report. Some areas in Canada like Ontario and Quebec have seen a 50% increase in stolen cars, a car is stolen every 6 minutes.

- WhiskeyMan



pt barnum does not deal in facts - he deals in narratives
WhiskeyMan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 04.27.2018

Sep 25 @ 12:42 PM ET
There is no deterrence and a revolving door with no cash bail for those that steal cars. I suspect that you don’t live here in Canada however it’s well known that there is an epidemic of vehicle theft especially in the gta and Montreal. The cars are stolen, shipped overseas in shipping containers with many ending up in Africa.
- Hextall271


Saw a story where one guy tracked his stolen truck, showed it to the police and said their hands are tied. Useless!
Dkos
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gritty, PA
Joined: 01.15.2007

Sep 25 @ 12:42 PM ET
All a graph is, is a visual depiction of underlying data. What’s the underlying data? Who collected it? What was the methodology? Whose graph is it? A graph pulled off the internet or anywhere else hardly tells an accurate story if the data isn’t sound.

So, again, what’s the methodology behind that graph?

- mikeyo27


In 1991, during a conservative administration (GWB), my car was stolen. I have never had one of my cars stolen during a liberal administration. Hard facts.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 25 @ 12:43 PM ET
All a graph is, is a visual depiction of underlying data. What’s the underlying data? Who collected it? What was the methodology? Whose graph is it? A graph pulled off the internet or anywhere else hardly tells an accurate story if the data isn’t sound.

So, again, what’s the methodology behind that graph?

- mikeyo27


The graph was generated by Statista. It is a respected database widely used in business, academia, press. Most universities, inuding my own, subscribe to it by paying the yearly dues. That addresses the "pulled off the internet bit" I guess.

How the data was generated is common sense. Take any measure of crimes reported (police reports would be the most likely). Call this A. Divide Canada's polulation by 100,000. Call this B.

The graph shows A divided by B.

I still don't understand what your point is.


Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Sep 25 @ 12:43 PM ET
In 1991, during a conservative administration (GWB), my car was stolen. I have never had one of my cars stolen during a liberal administration. Hard facts.
- Dkos


Haha. Giroux just had his car stolen under the watch of our exalted liberal prime minster Trudeau….
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Sep 25 @ 12:44 PM ET
Saw a story where one guy tracked his stolen truck, showed it to the police and said their hands are tied. Useless!
- WhiskeyMan


Yes. I read that as well. What a gong show.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 25 @ 12:48 PM ET
There is no deterrence and a revolving door with no cash bail for those that steal cars. I suspect that you don’t live here in Canada however it’s well known that there is an epidemic of vehicle theft especially in the gta and Montreal. The cars are stolen, shipped overseas in shipping containers with many ending up in Africa.

Here’s a link to the story I was referring to.

https://canoe.com/news/lo...95-4194-8c4e-cd57c3172c58

- Hextall271


Everything you are saying might be true. But my point is, there seems to be no evidence that those incidents are more than blips leading to only minor changes in overall rates.

Often, people tend to believe in things they suspect is true. But sometimes, data shows otherwise.

If the data is gathered by respectable sources, surely what it says should be a better reflection of reality than anecdotes and personal 'gut feelings'.

Else, we might as well get rid of all stats and just go back to good old intuition.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Sep 25 @ 12:49 PM ET
These are the charts you are looking for....Crime does not exist

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 25 @ 12:52 PM ET
Down here, crimes that were crime a few years ago are no longer crimes. In California you can steal up to $950 without being charged with a felony. You get caught, no cash bail, get out and steal again.

In Philadelphia police can no longer stop drivers for low level traffic offenses. They are considered racist.

So any chart like you showed are worthless. Crimes are no longer crimes, crimes are racist so laws are not enforced or are deleted . City governments report what. they want to report. Some areas in Canada like Ontario and Quebec have seen a 50% increase in stolen cars, a car is stolen every 6 minutes.

- WhiskeyMan


Only if you can demonstrate that the crimes being omitted would substantially change the drop in crime rates.

And you would never be able to demonstrate that. Do you know why? Because crime rates are always correlated. If petty crime were to rise then almost always violent crime rises as well (ignoring minor changes, talking about large shifts).

But since there has been no change in the collection of data for violent crime, it is highly unlikely that petty crime would be substantially affected in a different way.
Dkos
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gritty, PA
Joined: 01.15.2007

Sep 25 @ 12:52 PM ET
Haha. Giroux just had his car stolen under the watch of our exalted liberal prime minster Trudeau….
- Hextall271


Trudeau is personally responsible for watching all NHL player's cars or just Giroux's? I'm American and unfamiliar with the responsibilities of Canada's Prime Minister.
mikeyo27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2014

Sep 25 @ 12:56 PM ET
In 1991, during a conservative administration (GWB), my car was stolen. I have never had one of my cars stolen during a liberal administration. Hard facts.
- Dkos


Well there ya go. Ladies and gentlemen, we have our smoking gun!
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 25 @ 1:06 PM ET
These are the charts you are looking for....Crime does not exist


- Glak18



mikeyo27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:07 PM ET
The graph was generated by Statista. It is a respected database widely used in business, academia, press. Most universities, inuding my own, subscribe to it by paying the yearly dues. That addresses the "pulled off the internet bit" I guess.

How the data was generated is common sense. Take any measure of crimes reported (police reports would be the most likely). Call this A. Divide Canada's polulation by 100,000. Call this B.

The graph shows A divided by B.

I still don't understand what your point is.

- PT21


Does the underlying data reflect reported crimes, charged crimes, crimes resulting in actual convictions? Does the I relying data include misdemeanors? (Someone earlier accurately pointed out that California reduced thefts from crimes to misdemeanors so that any theft of under $950 is not a crime, thus this rash of smash and grabs and shoplifting that is not included in California crime statistics).

Do these statistics reflect a true measure of whatever they are trying to measure, unlike the so-called FBI crime statistics erroneously and dishonestly cited by ABC at the presidential debate a few weeks ago where the FBI omitted crime statistics from multiple metropolitan areas? Yeah that contorted the statistics.

All I’m saying is you can’t believe everything you read u less you really have a fundamental grasp of the methodology. Look at the various presidential polls… they’re all over the place because of the methodology utilized to, in some cases, arrive at a desired conclusion rather that an accurate one.
mikeyo27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:09 PM ET
The graph was generated by Statista. It is a respected database widely used in business, academia, press. Most universities, inuding my own, subscribe to it by paying the yearly dues. That addresses the "pulled off the internet bit" I guess.

How the data was generated is common sense. Take any measure of crimes reported (police reports would be the most likely). Call this A. Divide Canada's polulation by 100,000. Call this B.

The graph shows A divided by B.

I still don't understand what your point is.

- PT21


Oh and I would t necessarily tout any database that the press utilizes these days.
mikeyo27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:10 PM ET
These are the charts you are looking for....Crime does not exist


- Glak18


Well played, Glak! Well played!!! You win the internet for the day!
corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

Sep 25 @ 1:12 PM ET
Oh and I would t necessarily tout any database that the press utilizes these days.
- mikeyo27


or academia
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 25 @ 1:17 PM ET
Does the underlying data reflect reported crimes, charged crimes, crimes resulting in actual convictions? Does the I relying data include misdemeanors? (Someone earlier accurately pointed out that California reduced thefts from crimes to misdemeanors so that any theft of under $950 is not a crime, thus this rash of smash and grabs and shoplifting that is not included in California crime statistics).

Do these statistics reflect a true measure of whatever they are trying to measure, unlike the so-called FBI crime statistics erroneously and dishonestly cited by ABC at the presidential debate a few weeks ago where the FBI omitted crime statistics from multiple metropolitan areas? Yeah that contorted the statistics.

All I’m saying is you can’t believe everything you read u less you really have a fundamental grasp of the methodology. Look at the various presidential polls… they’re all over the place because of the methodology utilized to, in some cases, arrive at a desired conclusion rather that an accurate one.

- mikeyo27


So, if I understand correctly, your entire premise is that data by mainstream organizations are biased. And you shouldn't trust anything pulled off the Internet that uses such data.

But the data showing that bias is not biased. And we can pull anything from the Internet to justify it?

Do I understand the general thesis correctly?
mikeyo27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:17 PM ET
or academia
- corduroy


Definitely true!
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