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Forums :: Blog World :: Jeremy Laura: Detroit Red Wings sign Austin Watson After successful PTO
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Sven22
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Grand Rapids, MI
Joined: 12.24.2007

Oct 7 @ 8:15 PM ET
It's really not, you're just impatient from having been spoiled watching all the winning years and none of the losing years.
- DraftandDestroy


I mean, objectively yes it is. Eight consecutive missed playoffs is tied for sixth most all time.

That's not all on Yzerman, and arguably not even mostly on him. Successful rebuilds require both good decisions and good luck. There's some disagreement about the quality of his decision-making (I tend to fall somewhere in the middle on this; I think he's a decent-to-good but not great GM) but we can all agree his luck has been wretched. Holland left him with almost nothing of value to even flip for futures, much less build on. And clear cut superstar talent was never available at the draft table by the time Yzerman was up. He's been dealt a crap hand, regardless of how you feel about how well he's played it.

The team has improved every year since bottoming out. Whether that continues or stalls out depends a lot on whether enough of the 23-and-under crowd can exceed expectations over the next few years.

This team is not especially skilled or especially young. If we want to actually contend within the next few years, with the current core, Raymond and Seider need to be legit all-stars. At least one of Edvinsson or ASP need to develop into a legit top pair defenser. At least one if not two of Kasper, Danielson, and MBN need to be consistent first line caliber. One of Cossa or Augustine needs to be a top-10 starter. Or otherwise Yzerman will need to go get the talent from outside the system.

It's a tall order. Not impossible. But it's going to require some more good (and difficult) decisions and good luck.
DraftandDestroy
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Windsor, ON
Joined: 11.15.2016

Oct 7 @ 9:38 PM ET
I mean, objectively yes it is. Eight consecutive missed playoffs is tied for sixth most all time.

That's not all on Yzerman, and arguably not even mostly on him. Successful rebuilds require both good decisions and good luck. There's some disagreement about the quality of his decision-making (I tend to fall somewhere in the middle on this; I think he's a decent-to-good but not great GM) but we can all agree his luck has been wretched. Holland left him with almost nothing of value to even flip for futures, much less build on. And clear cut superstar talent was never available at the draft table by the time Yzerman was up. He's been dealt a crap hand, regardless of how you feel about how well he's played it.

The team has improved every year since bottoming out. Whether that continues or stalls out depends a lot on whether enough of the 23-and-under crowd can exceed expectations over the next few years.

This team is not especially skilled or especially young. If we want to actually contend within the next few years, with the current core, Raymond and Seider need to be legit all-stars. At least one of Edvinsson or ASP need to develop into a legit top pair defenser. At least one if not two of Kasper, Danielson, and MBN need to be consistent first line caliber. One of Cossa or Augustine needs to be a top-10 starter. Or otherwise Yzerman will need to go get the talent from outside the system.

It's a tall order. Not impossible. But it's going to require some more good (and difficult) decisions and good luck.

- Sven22

For me it really depends on whether or not you believe the organization truly and consciously made a concerted effort to tank and/or rebuild under Holland. Personally, I don’t think “rebuilding on the fly”, is a rebuild, which was the Holland plan. The Coyotes/Utah have selected 8 times in the first round since and including the 2021 draft, four drafts. That’s a concerted effort to rebuild. Holland never did that.

Being bad at your job and rebuilding can be two totally separate things, although the net result in the standings can be the same. Holland grabbing a bunch of third round picks isn’t exactly conducive to truly rebuilding your club.

For me the rebuild started five years ago when Yzerman made his first draft pick in 2019. To me he’s clearly building a defence and then he’ll concentrate on the forwards. What you’re seeing with this group is just lip service for a future plan.
HenryHockey
Season Ticket Holder
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Gwinn, MI
Joined: 01.26.2020

Oct 8 @ 8:47 AM ET
Detroit Red Wings: The Wings will continue to push for playoff action by acquiring local boy Cam Fowler to bolster the defence corps. Fowler can slide into a second-pair role with Detroit thanks to the stepforward Simon Edvinsson is about to have in his first full NHL campaign.
Ryan Dixon's prediction
Sven22
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Grand Rapids, MI
Joined: 12.24.2007

Oct 8 @ 10:41 AM ET
For me it really depends on whether or not you believe the organization truly and consciously made a concerted effort to tank and/or rebuild under Holland. Personally, I don’t think “rebuilding on the fly”, is a rebuild, which was the Holland plan. The Coyotes/Utah have selected 8 times in the first round since and including the 2021 draft, four drafts. That’s a concerted effort to rebuild. Holland never did that.

Being bad at your job and rebuilding can be two totally separate things, although the net result in the standings can be the same. Holland grabbing a bunch of third round picks isn’t exactly conducive to truly rebuilding your club.

For me the rebuild started five years ago when Yzerman made his first draft pick in 2019. To me he’s clearly building a defence and then he’ll concentrate on the forwards. What you’re seeing with this group is just lip service for a future plan.

- DraftandDestroy


The rebuild absolutely started under Holland, at least as far back as selling off Tatar and Mrazek in February 2018. His last real push to rebuild "on the fly" IMO was the 2016 offseason (Nielsen, Vanek) or, if you squint hard enough, maaaaaybe 2017 offseason (Daley, re-sign Green). The last actual trade he made to improve the team in the short term (instead of moving roster players for picks) was Zidlicky in 2015.

I'll grant you that grabbing a bunch of mid-round picks (as Holland was mostly doing in 2017 and 2018) for last-legs vets (Vanek, Ott), spare parts (Smith, Kindl) and prospects who need a change of scenery (Jurco) is not exactly conducive to rebuilding quickly or successfully.

But Holland wasn't "settling" for 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths because he was still trying to rebuild on the fly. It was because those were the best picks he could get for the trash he wanted to offload. The only guy on the 2016-2018 Red Wings who could have realistically gotten him 1st rounder was Larkin (and ultimately Tatar, because Vegas dramatically overpaid). More than half the roster consisted of veterans who were so outrageously overpaid, for so many additional years, that Holland would have had to spend his own picks (and probably take back some bad salary on top) just to grease them out the door.

I think the team had more or less committed to the rebuild at least by 2017. The problem was that the Holland's roster construction in the years leading up to the 2016-17 season was so bad, with contracts that were so awful and unmovable, that it legitimately took 2-3 years just to complete the teardown.

As I said, Yzerman had to fix Holland's incompetence and start from less than scratch, so this rebuild was always going to take a long time. I don't have an issue in the abstract with missing the playoffs 8 years in a row, or 5+ years under Yzerman, as long as I am confident that the Wings are on a trajectory that is likely to result in a contending team. I cut him a lot of slack because of what he had to work with, but the future is still murky at best.
bluelineenforcer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: MI
Joined: 10.21.2019

Oct 8 @ 11:21 AM ET
It's really not, you're just impatient from having been spoiled watching all the winning years and none of the losing years.
- DraftandDestroy


It's typically 10-12 years from start of rebuild to contender. Those numbers hold true for Toronto, Edmonton, Tampa, Florida...pretty much everyone in the cap era. We're in year 5.
Sven22
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Grand Rapids, MI
Joined: 12.24.2007

Oct 8 @ 12:13 PM ET
I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding here. It not about the number of years it takes to get from rock bottom to contention. It's about the trajectory.

For the most part, I think if you asked knowledgeable hockey fans who are unhappy with Yzerman why they're frustrated, it's not because they're sick of missing the playoffs and think he should have built a contender by now. If anything they're mad because they think Yzerman didn't tank long enough. The argument is that the team pulled out of the basement too quickly, without acquiring the elite draft pieces they will need to be a legitimate contender. The fear is that this team will top out as a middle-of-the-pack also-ran that might make the second round a couple times but will be back to rebuilding in another 7-10 years.

IMO we are going to find out within the next two years whether this rebuild is still viable or probably doomed to failure. Raymond's gotta be a superstar. Seider's gotta prove he's an all-star defender and not just a decent No. 2/3 holding on for dear life against other team's top lines. At least a couple of the current prospects will need to show huge steps forward. Will any of Kasper/Danielson/MBD be as good as Larkin or better? Will either of Edvinsson or ASP become a top-30 NHL defender? Will either of Cossa or Augustine become a top-10 NHL goaltender? If the answer to any of these questions is no, that is going to be a big problem to overcome.
HenryHockey
Season Ticket Holder
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Gwinn, MI
Joined: 01.26.2020

Oct 8 @ 12:48 PM ET
I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding here. It not about the number of years it takes to get from rock bottom to contention. It's about the trajectory.

For the most part, I think if you asked knowledgeable hockey fans who are unhappy with Yzerman why they're frustrated, it's not because they're sick of missing the playoffs and think he should have built a contender by now. If anything they're mad because they think Yzerman didn't tank long enough. The argument is that the team pulled out of the basement too quickly, without acquiring the elite draft pieces they will need to be a legitimate contender. The fear is that this team will top out as a middle-of-the-pack also-ran that might make the second round a couple times but will be back to rebuilding in another 7-10 years.

IMO we are going to find out within the next two years whether this rebuild is still viable or probably doomed to failure. Raymond's gotta be a superstar. Seider's gotta prove he's an all-star defender and not just a decent No. 2/3 holding on for dear life against other team's top lines. At least a couple of the current prospects will need to show huge steps forward. Will any of Kasper/Danielson/MBD be as good as Larkin or better? Will either of Edvinsson or ASP become a top-30 NHL defender? Will either of Cossa or Augustine become a top-10 NHL goaltender? If the answer to any of these questions is no, that is going to be a big problem to overcome.

- Sven22
Y's awful contracts to Holl, Copp, Chiarot, and to a lesser extent Veleno, Raz, Husso, that and the fact he has not really hit on any picks not in round 1 yet. Those are the other critisisms of Stevie's reign.
DraftandDestroy
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Windsor, ON
Joined: 11.15.2016

Oct 8 @ 12:53 PM ET
The rebuild absolutely started under Holland, at least as far back as selling off Tatar and Mrazek in February 2018. His last real push to rebuild "on the fly" IMO was the 2016 offseason (Nielsen, Vanek) or, if you squint hard enough, maaaaaybe 2017 offseason (Daley, re-sign Green). The last actual trade he made to improve the team in the short term (instead of moving roster players for picks) was Zidlicky in 2015.

I'll grant you that grabbing a bunch of mid-round picks (as Holland was mostly doing in 2017 and 2018) for last-legs vets (Vanek, Ott), spare parts (Smith, Kindl) and prospects who need a change of scenery (Jurco) is not exactly conducive to rebuilding quickly or successfully.

But Holland wasn't "settling" for 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths because he was still trying to rebuild on the fly. It was because those were the best picks he could get for the trash he wanted to offload. The only guy on the 2016-2018 Red Wings who could have realistically gotten him 1st rounder was Larkin (and ultimately Tatar, because Vegas dramatically overpaid). More than half the roster consisted of veterans who were so outrageously overpaid, for so many additional years, that Holland would have had to spend his own picks (and probably take back some bad salary on top) just to grease them out the door.

I think the team had more or less committed to the rebuild at least by 2017. The problem was that the Holland's roster construction in the years leading up to the 2016-17 season was so bad, with contracts that were so awful and unmovable, that it legitimately took 2-3 years just to complete the teardown.

As I said, Yzerman had to fix Holland's incompetence and start from less than scratch, so this rebuild was always going to take a long time. I don't have an issue in the abstract with missing the playoffs 8 years in a row, or 5+ years under Yzerman, as long as I am confident that the Wings are on a trajectory that is likely to result in a contending team. I cut him a lot of slack because of what he had to work with, but the future is still murky at best.

- Sven22

Just my personal opinion, but I believe Holland is a largely overrated GM. When he was promoted to GM the Wings already had a HOF roster, and then Hakan Andersson unearthed Datsyuk in 98 and Zetterberg in 99, which kept them in the game for another decade.
DraftandDestroy
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Windsor, ON
Joined: 11.15.2016

Oct 8 @ 1:10 PM ET
I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding here. It not about the number of years it takes to get from rock bottom to contention. It's about the trajectory.

For the most part, I think if you asked knowledgeable hockey fans who are unhappy with Yzerman why they're frustrated, it's not because they're sick of missing the playoffs and think he should have built a contender by now. If anything they're mad because they think Yzerman didn't tank long enough. The argument is that the team pulled out of the basement too quickly, without acquiring the elite draft pieces they will need to be a legitimate contender. The fear is that this team will top out as a middle-of-the-pack also-ran that might make the second round a couple times but will be back to rebuilding in another 7-10 years.

IMO we are going to find out within the next two years whether this rebuild is still viable or probably doomed to failure. Raymond's gotta be a superstar. Seider's gotta prove he's an all-star defender and not just a decent No. 2/3 holding on for dear life against other team's top lines. At least a couple of the current prospects will need to show huge steps forward. Will any of Kasper/Danielson/MBD be as good as Larkin or better? Will either of Edvinsson or ASP become a top-30 NHL defender? Will either of Cossa or Augustine become a top-10 NHL goaltender? If the answer to any of these questions is no, that is going to be a big problem to overcome.

- Sven22

No one but Yzerman and his team really know what their long-game is and what their timeline is, if they in fact have one. In my opinion good organizations don't have a timeline, they just keep building on what they built the year before. They just keep trying to progressively get better, and sometimes that means taking, or accepting, a step back like Colorado and Tampa did a few times before they won.

Without a top three pick in today's game it's just so hard an elite team, you need some luck, which they've had in spades in previous years, or you need to select top two for an elite talent. Grabbing both Seider and Raymond his first two years was awesome, those are two great building blocks.

I would buckle-up if I were most fans though, this is still going to take a few more years to figure out.
DraftandDestroy
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Windsor, ON
Joined: 11.15.2016

Oct 8 @ 1:16 PM ET
Y's awful contracts to Holl, Copp, Chiarot, and to a lesser extent Veleno, Raz, Husso, that and the fact he has not really hit on any picks not in round 1 yet. Those are the other critisisms of Stevie's reign.
- HenryHockey

The contracts are kinda meaningless, given they're in a rebuilding mode. Could they have taken on contracts for draft picks, sure, I suppose. Secondly, not hitting on anything outside of the first round is complete nonsense, please provide examples of a clear miss on the Wings part from 2020 to present.
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