Yeah Phaneuf got a really unfair assignment this year. People never seem to pay attention to these things, and then dismiss them as "fancy stats" when you bring them up as a reason that a player is battling all season to stay above the water.

When really, short of being fancy stats, watching the game and seeing who's on the ice in what situation is the simplest frigging thing in the world.
- Morris

It’s almost comical listening to people rag on Phaneuf and Gunnarson. Every time they step on the ice they’re facing the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Lucic, Krejci, etc, etc, etc.



It also highlights just how far adding just ONE top notch defensive dman can go. Those two are literally carrying the ENTIRE load defensively. But what choice does Carlyle have. Gardiner, Rielly, Franson, all offensive Dmen, and Gleason is no longer fit for anything but depth. No one else to turn to.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=13&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67
- prock

that's a good link. i knew he played top pair minutes, but didn't realize they were that hard. i'll eat my crow on that stat, you were definitely right.

despite that, i still think he's overpaid, and is not close to being a top 10 dman in the league.

he definitely plays tough competition, and that will definitely weigh on a guy, but the rest of his corsi numbers aren't very flattering.

he's a good player, i'm not denying that. but he's paid like a top 5-10 d-man, and he's not.......not close.

link or u making it up? Pk being benched every 2nd game doesn't help his cause.
- BingoLady

I think there are a few differences between Subban and the other two. If he signs for 7 years or 8, I believe that cuts further into UFA years, because of the bridge contract. Generally doing so inflates a salary. UFA years cost more. And yeah, I think the cap will be higher.

I also think he took a lower contract last time looking to prove he's worth top bucks, and that's what he is looking for. Hes also cocky and probably thinks of himself as top 2 or 3 in the NHL.

I don't know what ole Rog was saying, but I suspect he gets between 7 and 8.

that's a good link. i knew he played top pair minutes, but didn't realize they were that hard. i'll eat my crow on that stat, you were definitely right.

despite that, i still think he's overpaid, and is not close to being a top 10 dman in the league.

he definitely plays tough competition, and that will definitely weigh on a guy, but the rest of his corsi numbers aren't very flattering.

he's a good player, i'm not denying that. but he's paid like a top 5-10 d-man, and he's not.......not close.
- sensarmy_11

Well he's being deployed like a top 5-10 dman, so the leafs are certainly getting their 6.5 million dollar use out of the guy

I find that the quality of competition stuff is pretty telling. It was amazing a few years back and even into this year when people were ragging on Oilers vets like Horcoff and Smyth despite them (Horcs especially) being given an impossible cocktail of 60% D-zone starts against the highest competition over huge swaths of ES time. Of course the kids are more talented, and of course you should try to hide them in favourable matchups, but the fact that that was happening was lost on a lot of the 'youth movement' crew.

Here we are and if we hadn't shattered Horcoff's confidence and burnt him out, we'd likely have the pretty darn good 3rd line centre that would have really helped us in the early going this year. I forsee a similar sort of thing happening with Bolland and whatever team he ends up on too, as they're similar players in similar situations: the market's once again suggesting a Ryan Kesler price for a Shawn Horcoff player.

Well he's being deployed like a top 5-10 dman, so the leafs are certainly getting their 6.5 million dollar use out of the guy

I find that the quality of competition stuff is pretty telling. It was amazing a few years back and even into this year when people were ragging on Oilers vets like Horcoff and Smyth despite them (Horcs especially) being given an impossible cocktail of 60% D-zone starts against the highest competition over huge swaths of ES time. Of course the kids are more talented, and of course you should try to hide them in favourable matchups, but the fact that that was happening was lost on a lot of the 'youth movement' crew.

Here we are and if we hadn't shattered Horcoff's confidence and burnt him out, we'd likely have the pretty darn good 3rd line centre that would have helped us in the early going. I forsee a similar sort of thing happening with Bolland and whatever team he ends up on too, as they're similar players in similar situations: the market's once again suggesting a Ryan Kesler price for a Shawn Horcoff player.
- Morris

deployed like, and playing like, are 2 differnt things.

and let's be fair, he's being deployed like one of only 2 guys who are capable of playing defense on his team, and he's only playing "pretty good" in his own end.

there are lots of guys on that list who play slightly easier minutes (not that much easier) but play those minutes much better.

maybe it's just me, but i'll take the guy who excels in hard minutes, over the guy who plays okay in slightly harder minutes.

I also have to point out the irony of this situation.

for two years, ALL leaf fans bashed advanced stats into the ground, saying they were meaningless and useless...........and now, only a few weeks later, they're using them as the "be all, end all" stats to prove thier point.

funny how that works. corsi was poop when it proved the leafs suck, but it's awesome when it proves that phaneuf plays the hardest minutes.

Amazingly, still the Leafs

deployed like, and playing like, are 2 differnt things.

and let's be fair, he's being deployed like one of only 2 guys who are capable of playing defense on his team, and he's only playing "pretty good" in his own end.

there are lots of guys on that list who play slightly easier minutes (not that much easier) but play those minutes much better.

maybe it's just me, but i'll take the guy who excels in hard minutes, over the guy who plays okay in slightly harder minutes.
- sensarmy_11

Are they though, or is that just your perception? For example, weber is right there, but actually has more goals against even strength.

One of the best things about the leafs on paper at the beginning of the year was what I saw as legitimate depth. I think the need for an injection of talent is there, but they need to be careful in terms of who they let walk.

They should absolutely be trying to get Bolland locked down for a decent number. Maybe there's a compromise there that sees him at a Bozak-level number?

McClement is a revelation for you guys and I think he's an easy re-sign. You probably don't even have to give him a raise.

I'm a huge Kulemin fan and I don't get this whole "replace him with Komarov" movement. Even IF Komarov comes back, I think people are misremembering his skills. He was a satisfactory 4th liner that's a break even against competition. Kulemin is a solid 3rd liner that wins matchups.

On the other hand, I don't think they should get lured in by Mason Raymond's season. He's not a truly multi-faceted player to any degree and he's bolstered by better linemates, choice PP time and a decent amount of puck luck. Peter Holland (great acquisition) will in short order be a cheaper and more than adequate replacement.

I also have to point out the irony of this situation.

for two years, ALL leaf fans bashed advanced stats into the ground, saying they were meaningless and useless...........and now, only a few weeks later, they're using them as the "be all, end all" stats to prove thier point.

funny how that works. corsi was poop when it proved the leafs suck, but it's awesome when it proves that phaneuf plays the hardest minutes.
- sensarmy_11

Specifically, I think the notion that possession stats are the mist important thing is what bothers people. Its a stupid idea. Its just another stat, that tells you nothing more than the team holds the puck more or less.

I'm not claiming phaneufs corsi and QoC make him a better player than anyone below him. I'm claiming he plays tough minutes. The stat I gave you measures exactly that.

I also have to point out the irony of this situation.

for two years, ALL leaf fans bashed advanced stats into the ground, saying they were meaningless and useless...........and now, only a few weeks later, they're using them as the "be all, end all" stats to prove thier point.

funny how that works. corsi was poop when it proved the leafs suck, but it's awesome when it proves that phaneuf plays the hardest minutes.
- sensarmy_11

Other teams fans do the exact same thing.

The worst thing ever to happen to the acceptance of advanced stats was for them to accidentally demonstrate that the Sens are a better team than they're showing and that the Leafs are a worse team then they're showing. If two of the big anomalies in Corsi were the Captials and the Coyotes, no one would have any objections.

So I kind of get the Corsi bashing. With all the bias wrapped up in leaf-loving and leaf-hating, how could the average hockey fan ever take the stuff seriously?

Are they though, or is that just your perception? For example, weber is right there, but actually has more goals against even strength.
- prock

weber is getting a .911 sv% from his goalies, and phaneuf is getting .925.......that's MASSIVE difference, and likely plays a huge role in that number.

same with karlsson, who you like to rag on so much. his on-ice save % is among the lowest of any of the top d-men in the league. granted, SOME of that may be him making a bad play or something, but a VERY LARGE majority of it is his goalies sucking ass this year.

phaneuf has been getting vezina level goaltending for a majority of the year.....while karlsson and weber have been playing in front of goalies who have been sturggling to keep their sv% above .900 (and acutally for good parts of the year, were well below).

say what you want about the dmen, but if the goalies aren't stopping the puck (even the easy ones) then it's gonna make any d-man look bad.

Specifically, I think the notion that possession stats are the mist important thing is what bothers people. Its a stupid idea. Its just another stat, that tells you nothing more than the team holds the puck more or less.

I'm not claiming phaneufs corsi and QoC make him a better player than anyone below him. I'm claiming he plays tough minutes. The stat I gave you measures exactly that.
- prock

it measures how tough his minutes are, based on how good the other players corsi is. so if you don't believe that corsi is a telling stat, then there is nothing that proves dion plays the toughest minutes.

Specifically, I think the notion that possession stats are the mist important thing is what bothers people. Its a stupid idea. Its just another stat, that tells you nothing more than the team holds the puck more or less.

I'm not claiming phaneufs corsi and QoC make him a better player than anyone below him. I'm claiming he plays tough minutes. The stat I gave you measures exactly that.
- prock

And here's a thing that I think people miss: Corsi stats are near-perfect if you're looking at a team of the same players deployed in the same manner over 500 games. very very telling, and very very accurately map team success.

But corsi disciples, not the guys that gather the stats and make the inferences, have decided that it can be boiled down to a "better corsi? should have won" stat on a game-to-game basis. This will become especially egregious when we get into the playoffs. Over a small sample size, against the same team seven times in a row, corsi will not tell you a ton. Simply based on the way teams match up, there are many things a poor-possession team can do to not only beat, but anihilate a better-possession team.

I think there are a few differences between Subban and the other two. If he signs for 7 years or 8, I believe that cuts further into UFA years, because of the bridge contract. Generally doing so inflates a salary. UFA years cost more. And yeah, I think the cap will be higher.

I also think he took a lower contract last time looking to prove he's worth top bucks, and that's what he is looking for. Hes also cocky and probably thinks of himself as top 2 or 3 in the NHL.

I don't know what ole Rog was saying, but I suspect he gets between 7 and 8.
- prock

yea 7-7.5 imo

One of the best things about the leafs on paper at the beginning of the year was what I saw as legitimate depth. I think the need for an injection of talent is there, but they need to be careful in terms of who they let walk.

They should absolutely be trying to get Bolland locked down for a decent number. Maybe there's a compromise there that sees him at a Bozak-level number?

McClement is a revelation for you guys and I think he's an easy re-sign. You probably don't even have to give him a raise.

I'm a huge Kulemin fan and I don't get this whole "replace him with Komarov" movement. Even IF Komarov comes back, I think people are misremembering his skills. He was a satisfactory 4th liner that's a break even against competition. Kulemin is a solid 3rd liner that wins matchups.

On the other hand, I don't think they should get lured in by Mason Raymond's season. He's not a truly multi-faceted player to any degree and he's bolstered by better linemates, choice PP time and a decent amount of puck luck. Peter Holland (great acquisition) will in short order be a cheaper and more than adequate replacement.
- Morris

i'll NEVER understand the hard-on people have for bolland.

this is a guy that the cup champs felt was expendable, and traded for two 4th's and a 3rd, i think.

if a team like chicago felt he was completely expendable, i'm not sure why he's so coveted by the leafs.

the hawks didn't have to trade him, they weren't in any real cap trouble.

the guy is a decent 3rd liner, there are TONS of guys who bring the exact same things he does....but for some reason he's being hailed as some unbelievable core player....not saying it's people here, but a lot of media, as well as a lot of fans.

yea 7-7.5 imo
- BingoLady

if he gets that, i don't think it will be from teh habs.

i expect bergevin will trade him before he gives him over 7 mil.

weber is getting a .911 sv% from his goalies, and phaneuf is getting .925.......that's MASSIVE difference, and likely plays a huge role in that number.

same with karlsson, who you like to rag on so much. his on-ice save % is among the lowest of any of the top d-men in the league. granted, SOME of that may be him making a bad play or something, but a VERY LARGE majority of it is his goalies sucking ass this year.

phaneuf has been getting vezina level goaltending for a majority of the year.....while karlsson and weber have been playing in front of goalies who have been sturggling to keep their sv% above .900 (and acutally for good parts of the year, were well below).

say what you want about the dmen, but if the goalies aren't stopping the puck (even the easy ones) then it's gonna make any d-man look bad.
- sensarmy_11

Leafs Team sv% is approximately .918. Yes, higher than both other teams. Certainly not vezina caliber. Sens are approx .909. Preds .904 or so. Its still says a few things.

Leafs Team sv% is approximately .918. Yes, higher than both other teams. Certainly not vezina caliber. Sens are approx .909. Preds .904 or so. Its still says a few things.
- prock

i think that save% number dropped DRASTICALLY with the little 6 game funk by reimer.

but the save% when phaneuf is on teh ice is .925....... 11% higher then what weber gets, and 20% higher then what karlsson gets.

i'll NEVER understand the hard-on people have for bolland.

this is a guy that the cup champs felt was expendable, and traded for two 4th's and a 3rd, i think.

if a team like chicago felt he was completely expendable, i'm not sure why he's so coveted by the leafs.

the hawks didn't have to trade him, they weren't in any real cap trouble.

the guy is a decent 3rd liner, there are TONS of guys who bring the exact same things he does....but for some reason he's being hailed as some unbelievable core player....not saying it's people here, but a lot of media, as well as a lot of fans.
- sensarmy_11

These same people had a hard on for Versteeg too.

i'll NEVER understand the hard-on people have for bolland.

this is a guy that the cup champs felt was expendable, and traded for two 4th's and a 3rd, i think.

if a team like chicago felt he was completely expendable, i'm not sure why he's so coveted by the leafs.

the hawks didn't have to trade him, they weren't in any real cap trouble.

the guy is a decent 3rd liner, there are TONS of guys who bring the exact same things he does....but for some reason he's being hailed as some unbelievable core player....not saying it's people here, but a lot of media, as well as a lot of fans.
- sensarmy_11

The cap came down 6 million and they were designating a lot of money for new long term contracts (Crawford, Hjalmarsson), and to a lesser extent Saad, Shaw, Bollig who are/were all coming up for reupping in the next few years.

Also the raises given to Bickell, Leddy, Krueger, Rosival, and backup goaltending (Khabby + Rantaa vs Emery) amounted to about 5 million in new money.

They made a choice to part ways with Bolland, that he was the odd man out, but I'm not going to infer that it wasn't in the least a financial one.

Habs

Habs
- Nucker101

i think that save% number dropped DRASTICALLY with the little 6 game funk by reimer.

but the save% when phaneuf is on teh ice is .925....... 11% higher then what weber gets, and 20% higher then what karlsson gets.
- sensarmy_11

Maybe it has. If it has, the goals against with phaneuf on ice has risen. Maybe before that he had significantly better numbers than the rest of them.

i think that save% number dropped DRASTICALLY with the little 6 game funk by reimer.

but the save% when phaneuf is on teh ice is .925....... 11% higher then what weber gets, and 20% higher then what karlsson gets.
- sensarmy_11

So you're telling me sv% with phaneuf on the ice rises for the leafs, and falls for the Sens while Karlsson is in the ice?

I find that very interesting. I legitimately do. I've always thought that it probably didn't differ too much among Dmen on the same team.