Dopplegagner wouldn't explain this to me. In your mind, is their such thing as an incorrect set of stats, or can there only be incomplete stats?

Or is it the case that if stats report less than they're actually is, then they are incomplete, but if they report more they are incorrect?

I want to use this final sentence to stress I'm not trying to goad or trap you, or call you an idiot. I'm just curious as to the distinction that dopple (and to some extent you) are making
- Morris

I think you can see a highly subjective interpretation of events that results in statistics having a very different look from one team to the next. Hits (body checks) would be an example of a hockey event that is subject to a very broad range of interpretation. Sometimes you will see a guy playing on the road have some really effective hits that are not counted. On the other hand, a home team player gets a high count for a series of soft hits. It is about the way the statistical guy sees the game. He understands how the home team guy makes his hits. He sees them every home game. He is simply not as familiar with the road guy and because hockey is such a fast game he misses what he not familiar with. Remember he does not have the benefit of instant replay to watch every event as they occur. What will make the distortion even more noticeable is if you are watching the broadcast by the visiting broadcasters. They know the pattern of their team players and they call the hits made by the visiting team even thought the scorer misses them. Of course, the visiting broadcasters miss calling some of the hits made by the home team. I think giveaways and takeaways and some other subjective calls may likely experience a similar kind of distortion based on nothing other than the antecedent anticipation of outcomes.

I wouldn't go that far. It's nice to see the kids coming along, but at the end of the day winning is winning. I'm pleased as punch by the way the season is going, but my perspective on whether they are better in the leafs will be based on performance. Points are a big aspect of that, as well as specific achievement vis a vis our perceived shortcomings (I.E. whether our D unit emerges to prove critics wrong, whether Dubnyk/Khabby show they can be a competitive tandem, whether our young forwards can play both offense and defense). Indeed, the big charge against our team has been team defense and goaltending. If we don't keep that up, and it doesn't to some extent show itself in the standings, I don't buy that the Oilers are better than the leafs YET.

Really, the biggest surprises so far hasn't been our kids. It's been our vets. Which is nice, because we were supposed to be a couple of no-brainer lottery picks surrounded by a bunch of AHL talent.
- Morris

You need to keep this in perspective that this debate has its origins in the Kessel trade. So it goes back a few years ago. I upset Leaf fans when I took a strong position that the Leafs were making a terrible mistake, I wanted them to build through the draft like the Oilers were doing and like a bunch of other teams did before them (LA, Chicago, Vancouver, Philadelphia, etc. etc.). So for about two years I kept saying that Edmonton was doing it right and my Leaf comrades kept saying that the Oilers would spend years rebuilding (like Columbus, Florida). And this year they have stopped talking about the Oil because they are beginning to see what is emerging. Leaf fans are great hockey fans and they know their stuff. So, they can see the future of some of these elite kids.

They have now focused their comparisons onto the Senators, They do not want to believe the Senators are following the Oiler blueprint (starting with the defense). I think what I say may upset them primarily because they see the essential kernel of truth that I have offered.

Edmonton hasn't proven Richard. They need a long way to go.

Edmonton hasn't proven Richard. They need a long way to go.
- RogerRoeper

Well some Leaf fans know their stuff.

Well some Leaf fans know their stuff.
- spatso

They need to rebuild that entire defense.

Colorado has rebuilt much better.

They need to rebuild that entire defense.

Colorado has rebuilt much better.
- RogerRoeper

In fact, I think they have rebuilt their defense, now the kids have to play and in playing they will have to learn how to play the NHL game.

Last night the Senators defense looked very good. Karlsson. Rundblad and Cowen all played well. Rundblad looks more smooth every game out. Cowen is strong. Karlsson has extreme talent. Would you actually want to add another kid into that mix?

In fact, I think they have rebuilt their defense, now the kids have to play and in playing they will have to learn how to play the NHL game.

Last night the Senators defense looked very good. Karlsson. Rundblad and Cowen all played well. Rundblad looks more smooth every game out. Cowen is strong. Karlsson has extreme talent. Would you actually want to add another kid into that mix?
- spatso

Reading issues?

Reading issues?
- prock

Don't think so. Ottawa has done enough in terms of putting in place the kids who will be the main players on their back end. The kids need to learn and the older guys (Gonchar, Kuba and Phillips) are good enough as mentors to oversee their development. Ottawa needs more development up front, not on the back end.

As great as Spezza has played I still think the Senators need to deal him and continue the remake of the team up front. I believe they should be targeting the potential of two elite prospects from any deal for Spezza. By moving Spezza it would also keep them in the hunt for a top lottery pick.

Oops went back and reread the thread. I was wrong. I need to practice reading.

Edmonton hasn't proven Richard. They need a long way to go.
- RogerRoeper

Let me try again. Sorry I misread your post.

This debate started last year and was in full force about the Leafs and Edmonton. The basic argument evolved around a fairly straight forward proposition. Can a team make deals and achieve elite status without having been in a position of building through the draft? So, last year the Leaf fans wanted to be highly critical of the Oilers as being the worst team in Canada. It is, as you know, my belief that is the way the Kool-aid drinkers avoid looking at the mess Blowhard has created. They simply find another team to compare themselves with and pretend they are okay. But, everyone sees the growing electricity around this Oiler team and Leaf fans have jumped off of pounding the Oilers to comparing themselves with the Senators.

This current round of debate started when I said it is just a matter of time before the Senators pass the Leafs in the development process and Leaf fans will be required to find another scapegoat in order to feel okay about the ongoing mediocrity.

So, when you say that Colorado may have done a better rebuild job than the Oil you may be correct. But, we understand that you say that in order to avoid having to compare the Leafs to either team. At some point in time you will need to face the reality of your denial and the avoidance of reality. Here's my prediction. As the Senator kids begin to expand their game the kool-aid drinkers will shift their attention to comparisons with Montreal in order to avoid the reality of what is actually happening.

It is actually a good point of discussion. The Leafs are trying to be competitive. The Senators have clearly taken the approach of wanting to follow the more traditional route of rebuilding in hopes of acquiring elite talent.

Think of the rebuilding as being something like an iceberg, 10/11 of the mass is under water. The Senators have elite talent at all levels of their development system, they will likely add some very strong assets during the coming year. Teams that know what they are doing tend to rebuild in a dramatic way. We can see how Edmonton finished at the bottom last year and the difference at the start of this year. We can see the Islanders starting to come on and we already know about LA, Chicago and Vancouver. Even the Bruins and Flyers followed this route a few years ago These are all teams that took advantage of the draft to build superbly talented young teams. All of them also made some very effective trades but they had the assets acquired in the draft to allow them to do the deals.

If you remember this time last year as well as the year before I was cautioning Leaf fans about their dumping on the Oilers. Many of you were saying that the Oilers would never finish ahead of the Leafs. Well I fear that time has now arrived. You notice how Leaf fans seem to be avoiding talking about the Oilers this year.

In fact, what will probably happen is that Leaf fans will start to become more and more aware of the young Senator talent and they will make the same kind of shift as they did against the Oilers. They will probably find it more easy to make their comparisons against Montreal when the Canadiens begin their rebuild.

Nobody really thinks of the Leafs as a serious contender. This will become more apparant as they play against stronger teams and their overall weakness in the middle becomes clear to everyone. I think they will have a good season and finish 10th. It has been my prediction since the early summer. But, they will still have not made any progress towards becoming a serious contender. It is in that context that I believe that the Senators will improve significantly while the Leafs remain essentially a mediocre team. Regardless of where the Oilers finish in the standings you know they are a better team than the Leafs. They will play as serious Stanley Cup contenders in the near future, the Senators are following the same roadmap. The Leafs do not have a roadmap that would enable them to become an elite team.
- spatso

Not a single thing here explains how you predict the Sens will finish higher in the standings than the Leafs next season. It actually pretty much says the complete opposite as you are saying they are committing to a full rebuild and following the roadmap that the Oilers took. Newsflash: The Oilers didn't finish in the bottom five one year and then make a run for the playoffs the following year. They finished dead last a few years in a row and arguably will be in the mix for being in the bottom 5 (or at least bottom 10) in the league again this year.

In the absolute long run could the Sens be better off than the Leafs? Absolutely. If they committ to a long term rebuild which could mean four or five years being in the bottom 5 in the league, a few years being last or second last, trade their vets for picks and prospects and draft elite talent, put an emphasis on development and make smart decisions on trades/signings for a mix of veteran and young proven NHLers.

But to expect that next season they will be better than the Leafs in the standings is absolutely 100% biased, ignorant, idiotic and about a dozen other adjectives I don't have the time to list off.

Not a single thing here explains how you predict the Sens will finish higher in the standings than the Leafs next season. It actually pretty much says the complete opposite as you are saying they are committing to a full rebuild and following the roadmap that the Oilers took. Newsflash: The Oilers didn't finish in the bottom five one year and then make a run for the playoffs the following year. They finished dead last a few years in a row and arguably will be in the mix for being in the bottom 5 (or at least bottom 10) in the league again this year.

In the absolute long run could the Sens be better off than the Leafs? Absolutely. If they committ to a long term rebuild which could mean four or five years being in the bottom 5 in the league, a few years being last or second last, trade their vets for picks and prospects and draft elite talent, put an emphasis on development and make smart decisions on trades/signings for a mix of veteran and young proven NHLers.

But to expect that next season they will be better than the Leafs in the standings is absolutely 100% biased, ignorant, idiotic and about a dozen other adjectives I don't have the time to list off.
- Leafy_84

I think the final point total is a straw man intended to distort the debate. I have no difficulty saying that the Oilers have now passed the Leafs and that is self evident to the fans of either team and neutral observers. remember this time last year how it was asserted that the Oilers were such a terrible team compared to the Leafs.

If in the last few months of the season the Oilers stumble and the Leafs gain more points nobody will be confused as to its meaning. The Oilers are building an elite team around elite talent. They are much more advanced than the Leafs in terms of being a potential Stanley Cup contender. The Leafs have had essentially the same start as they did last year. Most everyone expects that they will settle into a middle of the road team and compete for a playoff spot over the last month of the season.

When I speak of the Senators passing the Leafs it is in regard to the formation of an elite team built around elite players. The Ottawa system is loaded with prime prospects age 20 and under. The Leafs do not have much. The Senators will likely add another elite prospect at the next draft. More important they will continue to deal assets and gain some additional top picks. As you know I believe that they should deal Spezza as part of their rebuild.

When people quibble with my projection that the Senators will pass the Leafs they tend to do so based on a significantly flawed assumption. They think that the Senators need to catch up to the Leafs as they move up in the standings. My projection, if you remember, assumed that the Leafs would not move up in the point standings. I have said that they will not improve over last year and at some point fed up with a decade of mediocrity the Leafs will finally decide to rebuild in a proper way through the draft.

I think the final point total is a straw man intended to distort the debate. I have no difficulty saying that the Oilers have now passed the Leafs and that is self evident to the fans of either team and neutral observers. remember this time last year how it was asserted that the Oilers were such a terrible team compared to the Leafs.

- spatso

and yet, in this very thread, you had an Oilers fan dispute that......

Don't confuse this with crankiness, you're just posting more stupid nonsense.

and yet, in this very thread, you had an Oilers fan dispute that......

Don't confuse this with crankiness, you're just posting more stupid nonsense.
- prock

Not everyone agrees with me and I am not responsible for their opinions. Last year we were only talking about comparisons with the the Oilers and Leafs. I think you accused me then of being an Oiler fan (I am, I love what they have done). Now you have all switched over to trying to draw comparisons with the Leafs and Senators. Basically, all I am saying is the outcome will be the same. Over time the Senators have chosen to take the higher road and shoot for the stars. The Leafs never have.

p.s. In your heart I know that you agree with me. You understand hockey too well not to see the fatal flaw in the Leaf's repeating the same kind of mindless deals over and over again.

Not everyone agrees with me and I am not responsible for their opinions. Last year we were only talking about comparisons with the the Oilers and Leafs. I think you accused me then of being an Oiler fan (I am, I love what they have done). Now you have all switched over to trying to draw comparisons with the Leafs and Senators. Basically, all I am saying is the outcome will be the same. Over time the Senators have chosen to take the higher road and shoot for the stars. The Leafs never have.

PS In your heart I know that you agree with me. You understand hockey too well not to see the fatal flaw in the Leaf's repeating the same kind of mindless deals over and over again.
- spatso

but you said it's self evident to the fans of either team. And yet, you've got fans of both teams saying that's not true. Right here, this is what you said.

have no difficulty saying that the Oilers have now passed the Leafs and that is self evident to the fans of either team and neutral observers

would you like to revise your statement to say "you think", instead of projecting your stupid statements on everyone else?

but you said it's self evident to the fans of either team. And yet, you've got fans of both teams saying that's not true. Right here, this is what you said.



would you like to revise your statement to say "you think", instead of projecting your stupid statements on everyone else?
- prock

"Self evident" has meaning. It assumes that it would be obvious to you if you took the time to be objective and examined the matter clearly. Self evident imposes the obligation on you to be rigorous in your thinking about the matter. You have to apply some reasonable standard of dispassionate scrutiny to the facts.

"Self evident" has meaning. It assumes that it would be obvious to you if you took the time to be objective and examined the matter clearly. Self evident imposes the obligation on you to be rigorous in your thinking about the matter. You have to apply some reasonable standard of dispassionate scrutiny to the facts.
- spatso

So, this is your thoughts, and you THINK everyone else should agree.

Again, stop trying to project your ramblings and BS on everyone else.

Not everyone agrees with me and I am not responsible for their opinions. Last year we were only talking about comparisons with the the Oilers and Leafs. I think you accused me then of being an Oiler fan (I am, I love what they have done). Now you have all switched over to trying to draw comparisons with the Leafs and Senators. Basically, all I am saying is the outcome will be the same. Over time the Senators have chosen to take the higher road and shoot for the stars. The Leafs never have.

p.s. In your heart I know that you agree with me. You understand hockey too well not to see the fatal flaw in the Leaf's repeating the same kind of mindless deals over and over again.
- spatso

mindless deals, like the ones that got us Phaneuf Aulie for basically nothing, Colborne and Biggs for 2 months of Kaberle, Lupul and Gardiner for Beauchemin? Those kinds of mindless deals?

So, this is your thoughts, and you THINK everyone else should agree.

Again, stop trying to project your ramblings and BS on everyone else.
- prock

No, self evident actually has a real meaning that goes beyond merely your conclusion. It is a challenge to essentially say this is the "way" that I think and if you follow my reasoning you would believe what I believe. It is not an attempt to shut down your opinions or thinking. Rather, it is a challenge for you to explain the reasoning behind your thoughts, in terms of what you believe may be self evident.

No, self evident actually has a real meaning that goes beyond merely your conclusion. It is a challenge to essentially say this is the "way" that I think and if you follow my reasoning you would believe what I believe. It is not an attempt to shut down your opinions or thinking. Rather, it is a challenge for you to explain the reasoning behind your thoughts, in terms of what you believe may be self evident.
- spatso

Okay..... If you follow my reasoning, you'll probably end up believing what I believe.

The problem is, your reasoning sucks. You've said neutral observers, and fans of both teams would agree. But they don't. So, I will say, AGAIN, stop projecting your stupid comments on everyone else. Speak on behalf of yourself, not everyone else, because most people think you're full of shyt. If you follow our reasoning, you'll probably believe the same.

mindless deals, like the ones that got us Phaneuf Aulie for basically nothing, Colborne and Biggs for 2 months of Kaberle, Lupul and Gardiner for Beauchemin? Those kinds of mindless deals?
- Schenn-Sational!

Exactly! If the Leafs end up in 10th place, are we not allowed to ask about the purpose and benefit of all this dealing? On your list you forgot to include Franson who last month was trumpeted as being the biggest steal ever. The problem in your list is that most of the Leafs you have listed are not kids. They are well past junior age. Most of the guys are Leafs because other teams decided to let them go. Not sure why you don't understand the risk involved in taking players that other teams have decided to move.

Exactly! If the Leafs end up in 10th place, are we not allowed to ask about the purpose and benefit of all this dealing? On your list you forgot to include Franson who last month was trumpeted as being the biggest steal ever. The problem in your list is that most of the Leafs you have listed are not kids. They are well past junior age. Most of the guys are Leafs because other teams decided to let them go. Not sure why you don't understand the risk involved in taking players that other teams have decided to move.
- spatso

I didn't include him because he's not playing yet... but that was a good deal as well, we gave up negative value to get Franson and Lombardi(who is playing)

Of course the team won't immediately be better, but all these guys are proving their worth far more than what we gave up.

Okay..... If you follow my reasoning, you'll probably end up believing what I believe.

The problem is, your reasoning sucks. You've said neutral observers, and fans of both teams would agree. But they don't. So, I will say, AGAIN, stop projecting your stupid comments on everyone else. Speak on behalf of yourself, not everyone else, because most people think you're full of shyt. If you follow our reasoning, you'll probably believe the same.
- prock

That is actually kind of clever.

But it is somewhat surprising. It has my belief that most of the people on this thread do, in fact, agree with you and strongly disagree with my point of view. So, I have actually thought all along that I was presenting a minority point of view to a group that was already hardened in their understanding of the matter.

I would argue that just because most of you agree on the color of the kool-aid it does not make it so.

However, if the Leafs do not make the playoffs this year there is a very good chance that they will be overtaken and passed by the Senators in the following year. As you know I believe that the Senators will trade Spezza, Neil and several others and continue to stock up on elite prospects.
- spatso

Ottawa cannot trade Spezza, only Jason Spezza can trade Spezza, and he has not contacted any teams looking for a trade. Instead he's put down roots in Ottawa, started his family here, and is probably in line for the Captaincy once Alfredsson moves on.

Ottawa bottomed out last season, moved veterans for picks at the drafts, kept those in fold that are part of the solution going forward, hired a new coach and staff, brought up a number of players from their Calder Cup winning team to the big leagues and signing them to one way contracts.

Doing another step back, as you seem to be suggesting, at next years trade deadline would not improve the re-building process, but in fact set it back. Why would any GM want to do that?

Ottawa cannot trade Spezza, only Jason Spezza can trade Spezza, and he has not contacted any teams looking for a trade. Instead he's put down roots in Ottawa, started his family here, and is probably in line for the Captaincy once Alfredsson moves on.

Ottawa bottomed out last season, moved veterans for picks at the drafts, kept those in fold that are part of the solution going forward, hired a new coach and staff, brought up a number of players from their Calder Cup winning team to the big leagues and signing them to one way contracts.

Doing another step back, as you seem to be suggesting, at next years trade deadline would not improve the re-building process, but in fact set it back. Why would any GM want to do that?
- Doppleganger

Spezza cannot contact teams asking if they're interested in him. WTF are you talking about?

That is actually kind of clever.

But it is somewhat surprising. It has my belief that most of the people on this thread do, in fact, agree with you and strongly disagree with my point of view. So, I have actually thought all along that I was presenting a minority point of view to a group that was already hardened in their understanding of the matter.

I would argue that just because most of you agree on the color of the kool-aid it does not make it so.
- spatso

And when you see things different than everyone else, you should not tell people that they have not examined it clearly. Perhaps they ALL have, and think you're wrong. Perhaps they have good reason to believe so. perhaps it is actually you that has gotten way too much koolaid into themselves.