I know something about markets. It is all about setting value. The mistake that people make is they just assume that all the variables of any deal always fall in favor of the side of the deal they support. It is a pretty standard way of thinking for most people. But, market analysis requires that you look at best case and worst case scenarios before you pull the trigger on a deal.

So, it is easy enough to conjure up a series of worst case scenario in respect of Kessel.
He signed a five year deal with the Leafs. Let's assume for the sake of discussion that he is discouraged by his relationship with Leaf coaches and management in year four and decides he wants to do a Sundin and test free agency. So, he looks around and after considering all the offers he decides to accept the deal to play for the Bruins.

I don't think that is going to happen. But, it should have been part of the analysis by Leaf management when they did the deal originally. It seems to me they would have been wise to have gottern a few more years on that contract. Five years does not seem very long when you consider what the Leafs gave up.
- spatso

As of right now, they got him for a player who was a mainly 3rd/4th liner in their cup run, and two players who haven't even played a single NHL game. If we're establishing value, there's larger risk in what the Bruins acquired than there is in what the Leafs did. Leafs know what they got, and has been pretty consistent since. The Bruins got a lot of what-ifs at the moment.

I know something about markets. It is all about setting value. The mistake that people make is they just assume that all the variables of any deal always fall in favor of the side of the deal they support. It is a pretty standard way of thinking for most people. But, market analysis requires that you look at best case and worst case scenarios before you pull the trigger on a deal.

So, it is easy enough to conjure up a series of worst case scenario in respect of Kessel.
He signed a five year deal with the Leafs. Let's assume for the sake of discussion that he is discouraged by his relationship with Leaf coaches and management in year four and decides he wants to do a Sundin and test free agency. So, he looks around and after considering all the offers he decides to accept the deal to play for the Bruins.

I don't think that is going to happen. But, it should have been part of the analysis by Leaf management when they did the deal originally. It seems to me they would have been wise to have gottern a few more years on that contract. Five years does not seem very long when you consider what the Leafs gave up.
- spatso

i really couldnt care less what youclaim to know about... i am referring to the fact that you just jump from one random thought to another... you are jumping ahead 3 years and telling us why we're screwed... no one predicts what will happen at the end of the year with any assurance, and you are claiming to know whatgs going to happen with the kessel contract when it is up... please do us all a favour and just go to the sens thread.. you have a much happier vibe when speaking of them, even though they have accomplished no more than the leafs have

I think you need to think that through.
- spatso

Nope.

I know something about markets. It is all about setting value. The mistake that people make is they just assume that all the variables of any deal always fall in favor of the side of the deal they support. It is a pretty standard way of thinking for most people. But, market analysis requires that you look at best case and worst case scenarios before you pull the trigger on a deal.

So, it is easy enough to conjure up a series of worst case scenario in respect of Kessel.
He signed a five year deal with the Leafs. Let's assume for the sake of discussion that he is discouraged by his relationship with Leaf coaches and management in year four and decides he wants to do a Sundin and test free agency. So, he looks around and after considering all the offers he decides to accept the deal to play for the Bruins.

I don't think that is going to happen. But, it should have been part of the analysis by Leaf management when they did the deal originally. It seems to me they would have been wise to have gottern a few more years on that contract. Five years does not seem very long when you consider what the Leafs gave up.
- spatso

doubt it.

What you need to realize is that spatso is the kind of person that speaks alot without saying anything. Once you realize that you can just kind of gloss over his posts.
- Leafy_84

Either that or he blatantly makes poop up.

So technically any team that traded with Boston last year lost, correct?

This was a really stupid point as jsut because a team wont he cup and a player made a minor contribution that was involved in the trade, does not mean that the result ofthe trade should be determined on that. If Seguin, hamilton, or Knight provide a significant benefit to the team and are somewhat of a piece tht results in them winning the cup in the future, then sure, you can try to argue this point.

Based on your logic though, if the leafs had traded Jeff Finger to Boston and received a 1st rounder for him, since Boston won the cup, they won the trade because they reached the ultimate goal, regardless of finger's contributions.

understand what I'm saying?

Obviously not because you don't actually read our posts anyways
- mfreedman

Boston won the Cup in part because of the Kessel trade, ergo they win the trade.

And you agree.

At the moment it appears the deal was very lopsided, but it may not end up being as bad as peeople think.. That was my only problem with what you said.. We lost, but not a ton
- mfreedman

.

Boston won the Cup in part because of the Kessel trade, ergo they win the trade.

And you agree.

.
- Doppleganger

No, they were going to win a second with Kessel. The trade cost them a cup.

- muffin_man

No, they were going to win a second with Kessel. The trade cost them a cup.
- prock

Did you read that in the stats, or are you still living in a parallel universe?

Did you read that in the stats, or are you still living in a parallel universe?
- Doppleganger

I have about as much reason to say the trade cost them a cup as you do to say the trade contributed to their cup.

I have about as much reason to say the trade cost them a cup as you do to say the trade contributed to their cup.
- prock

I can point to numerous Boston players and Management wearing Stanley Cup Champions rings..........what proof do you have, beside imagination and the illusion that toronto won the trade?

I can point to numerous Boston players and Management wearing Stanley Cup Champions rings..........what proof do you have, beside imagination and the illusion that toronto won the trade?
- Doppleganger

I think it was the Peverley trade that one them the Cup, personally. Not Thomas, not Krejci, not Marchand, but the Peverley deal.

I think it was the Peverley trade that one them the Cup, personally. Not Thomas, not Krejci, not Marchand, but the Peverley deal.
- p_zub

So....Thomas had nothing to do with their Cup win..

So....Thomas had nothing to do with their Cup win..
- GuyLaDouche

Nope...not at all. In fact, I think Seguin played a bigger role than any of those players mentioned.

I can point to numerous Boston players and Management wearing Stanley Cup Champions rings..........what proof do you have, beside imagination and the illusion that toronto won the trade?
- Doppleganger

I can point tothe finger next to that ring, and its empty. See, just one cup. There is your proof.

besides, I never claimed they won the trade.

Nope...not at all. In fact, I think Seguin played a bigger role than any of those players mentioned.
- p_zub

Oh ok I see. Thought you were serious for a sec. My bad.

I think it was the Peverley trade that one them the Cup, personally.

- p_zub

Boston won the Cup in part because of the Kessel trade, ergo they win the trade.

And you agree.

.
- Doppleganger

I know you're shocked and angry Kessel is leading the league in goals and points, but don't claim such nonsense.

The Kaberle trade helped more.

The likelihood is the Sens will spend a few years in the basement. Ironically, Sens fans have been telling us they'll finish low enough to get a couple of lottery picks, just like the Oilers, and they're rebuilding right, etc, etc, and yet, they follow that up with "but we'll pass you next year".

The reality is, the Sens roster is completely pitiful. It can take several years for a team to collect enough prospects just to pull out of the basement, and a couple after that for them to develop and pull the team into the playoffs. that's just how it goes.

It will likely take a disconnect from reality like I've outlined above, for this to occur.
- prock

you REALLY need a life.
- muffin_man

you REALLY need a life.
- muffin_man

you just logged into his reality

The reality is that some leaf fans posted many of the type of posts I quoted in mid October, and most of them were based solely on what they hoped the Senators would be like this season.

Some other people, fans of other teams, told these leaf fans that the Sens were not going to be as bad as they were hoping.

Now that the season is virtually at the half way point, it's clear these leaf fans clearly underestimated the re-build under way in Ottawa.

At Present the Sens in a slightly better position with a .563 P% than the leafs with a .551 P%, this is reality.

You may not like the reality of the current standing, or the current frigid temperatures in Ontario, but we don't live in a fantasy world where the leafs are "miles and miles" ahead of the Sens, and we can golf tomorrow (in Ontario)..............the reality is what you read in the Standings in the Newspaper, and also the Weather outside your window.

You may not like it, but it is reality.

Hoped
You may not like it, but it is reality.
- Doppleganger

.... these are two things that stand out

obviously i cannot speak for everyone but the feeling i was getting at the time is everyone THOUGHT that the sens would be bottom feeders.... i wouldnt say they hoped... that would mean we have invested interest and actually care the outcome.... not many if any do.

Their key guys have been key guys and some youth have unexpectedly stepped up. In the long tun this might hurt them in the draft but when you have proud hockey players on the ice its not like they just pack it in

and this leads to making me question if it is reality or not..... i wouldnt say its a reality we HOPED they would suck all year, just an estimation that at the time is wrong.

.... these are two things that stand out

obviously i cannot speak for everyone but the feeling i was getting at the time is everyone THOUGHT that the sens would be bottom feeders.... i wouldnt say they hoped... that would mean we have invested interest and actually care the outcome.... not many if any do.

Their key guys have been key guys and some youth have unexpectedly stepped up. In the long tun this might hurt them in the draft but when you have proud hockey players on the ice its not like they just pack it in

and this leads to making me question if it is reality or not..... i wouldnt say its a reality we HOPED they would suck all year, just an estimation that at the time is wrong.
- nightmare3020

Not everyone.

There were a few Senators fans here in these forums that follow the day to day operations of the Senators, and pointed out things like the the success of the Binghamton Senators last spring, the excellent draft and US Collegiate signings, as an indication that the Senators re-build did not start at the beginning of the 2011-2112 season.

Since Bryan Murray became the GM, his first priority was to restock the minors, improve the scouting staff and develop players in the AHL and we're now seeing the fruits of that decision. There are Currently 6 players who hoisted the Calder Cup last spring, on the Senators roster. This was not unexpected as you suggest, by Senator fans who follow the team 365 days a year.

I admittedly know little of prospects in other teams minor systems, and would not expect that fans of other teams would know the prospects in the pipeline that may become NHLers in Ottawa.


I will still stand by my prediction that the Senators will not finish dead-last in the Eastern Conference, or that they will make the playoffs this season.

The reality is that some leaf fans posted many of the type of posts I quoted in mid October, and most of them were based solely on what they hoped the Senators would be like this season.

Some other people, fans of other teams, told these leaf fans that the Sens were not going to be as bad as they were hoping.

Now that the season is virtually at the half way point, it's clear these leaf fans clearly underestimated the re-build under way in Ottawa.

At Present the Sens in a slightly better position with a .563 P% than the leafs with a .551 P%, this is reality.

You may not like the reality of the current standing, or the current frigid temperatures in Ontario, but we don't live in a fantasy world where the leafs are "miles and miles" ahead of the Sens, and we can golf tomorrow (in Ontario)..............the reality is what you read in the Standings in the Newspaper, and also the Weather outside your window.

You may not like it, but it is reality.
- Doppleganger

They're currently sitting in a playoff spot. Congrats. Spats always talks about it being not enough for the leafs simply to make the playoffs (i.e. that the leafs making the playoffs is no evidence that they are much closer to winning a cup than before).

Honest question: do you think the sens have shown they have cup contender goods simply by being in the playoff hunt? If so, I'd expect to get a little back-up next time spats claims a playoff berth for the leafs is essentially worthless.

Or, if you agree with spatso, are you touting this sens achievement more as a way to take a jab at the leafs than to celebrate your own team?