It's easy to claim bias when ignoring context. Yost was extremely critical of the Leafs when the moves they were making didn't agree with what advanced stats pointed to as smart moves. It's not a bias towards the Toronto market, it's just seen through the lens of advanced stats.
- Feeling Glucky?

If you haven't figured it out yet, there are many things you can talk yourself into when"interpreting" the so called "advanced stats", when seeking an answer you're expecting to find.

If you're foolish enough to believe the conclusion you were looking for, as fact, then you've succeeding in bolstering your own predisposed theory, but not the truth.

[quote=systemtool]



WHat an absolute (frank)ing retard.

Shocked this idiot bothers to show his face anymore. Zero self respect.

[quote=systemtool]
poopz. Are the Leafs last? I know we haven't played many games, but i would've thought they amassed enough points so far to not be last.

WHat an absolute (frank)ing retard.

Shocked this idiot bothers to show his face anymore. Zero self respect.
- burn

I'd prefer you to not use the word retard when describing Spats.

(frank)tard is much more fitting.

Edit: He also goes by Dopps, so he's frequently in here.

October 12 @ 8:04 AM ET

tonight's game will show some incite into which team is further along in their re-build/re-tool process.

Neither team should make the playoffs this season, based on what we know now.
- D0PPELGANGER

Posted this three month ago, and even though both teams are, as of now, "in the Mix" for the third divisional playoff spot, I'll stick by my prediction (above).

Ottawa has made improvements in parts of their game, but there are parts that still need to improve, and the second half the season will show just how much more they need to improve in those parts.


Ottawa is 15-6-3 in one goal games this season, when you disregard ENGs. Their shift to defense first system, and relying on the other team to make mistakes, and then hoping to capitalize on those mistakes, can only take a team so far. Their PP started to "click" about a month ago, and it took about 3 weeks for other teams to predict who they were always trying to set up............. heck it took me a few games to see they were always looking for Hoffman, with the cross ice pass from beside the goal, and now they can't buy a PP goal, and we'll see if the coach has changed things up after a couple of days of practicing the PP.

As my good friend prock has already pointed out, the Sens schedule is about to get a little tougher than usual with games vs the Pens, Blues, Jackets (2), Caps and Flames this month.
Scoring has been a struggle this season, for various reasons, their record in games decided by >2 goals (minus ENGs) is a disappointing 0-7-0, and as the playoffs draw closer, if the Sens are down by 2 in the third, it's going to a lot harder to get back in the game(s) than the first half.

October 12 @ 8:04 AM ET



Posted this three month ago, and even though both teams are, as of now, "in the Mix" for the third divisional playoff spot, I'll stick by my prediction (above).

Ottawa has made improvements in parts of their game, but there are parts that still need to improve, and the second half the season will show just how much more they need to improve in those parts.


Ottawa is 15-6-3 in one goal games this season, when you disregard ENGs. Their shift to defense first system, and relying on the other team to make mistakes, and then hoping to capitalize on those mistakes, can only take a team so far. Their PP started to "click" about a month ago, and it took about 3 weeks for other teams to predict who they were always trying to set up............. heck it took me a few games to see they were always looking for Hoffman, with the cross ice pass from beside the goal, and now they can't buy a PP goal, and we'll see if the coach has changed things up after a couple of days of practicing the PP.

As my good friend prock has already pointed out, the Sens schedule is about to get a little tougher than usual with games vs the Pens, Blues, Jackets (2), Caps and Flames this month.
Scoring has been a struggle this season, for various reasons, their record in games decided by >2 goals (minus ENGs) is a disappointing 0-7-0, and as the playoffs draw closer, if the Sens are down by 2 in the third, it's going to a lot harder to get back in the game(s) than the first half.
- D0PPELGANGER

October 12 @ 8:04 AM ET



Posted this three month ago, and even though both teams are, as of now, "in the Mix" for the third divisional playoff spot, I'll stick by my prediction (above).

Ottawa has made improvements in parts of their game, but there are parts that still need to improve, and the second half the season will show just how much more they need to improve in those parts.


Ottawa is 15-6-3 in one goal games this season, when you disregard ENGs. Their shift to defense first system, and relying on the other team to make mistakes, and then hoping to capitalize on those mistakes, can only take a team so far. Their PP started to "click" about a month ago, and it took about 3 weeks for other teams to predict who they were always trying to set up............. heck it took me a few games to see they were always looking for Hoffman, with the cross ice pass from beside the goal, and now they can't buy a PP goal, and we'll see if the coach has changed things up after a couple of days of practicing the PP.

As my good friend prock has already pointed out, the Sens schedule is about to get a little tougher than usual with games vs the Pens, Blues, Jackets (2), Caps and Flames this month.
Scoring has been a struggle this season, for various reasons, their record in games decided by >2 goals (minus ENGs) is a disappointing 0-7-0, and as the playoffs draw closer, if the Sens are down by 2 in the third, it's going to a lot harder to get back in the game(s) than the first half.
- D0PPELGANGER

Great game by Sens. First time Pens have been beaten in consecutive games in more than a year. Phaneuf and Ceci were very strong. Ceci once again logs more ice time than Karlsson.

Saturday night against Leafs is huge game for both teams.

Great game by Sens. First time Pens have been beaten in consecutive games in more than a year. Phaneuf and Ceci were very strong. Ceci once again logs more ice time than Karlsson.

Saturday night against Leafs is huge game for both teams.
- spatso

Hopefully the Leafs have something left in the tank after tonight's game to do the Saturday game justice. Didn't look like Pittsburgh had much left after playing the night before against a very good Washington team.

Great game by Sens. First time Pens have been beaten in consecutive games in more than a year. Phaneuf and Ceci were very strong. Ceci once again logs more ice time than Karlsson.

Saturday night against Leafs is huge game for both teams.
- spatso

It's not December. There are stages.

Great game by Sens. First time Pens have been beaten in consecutive games in more than a year. Phaneuf and Ceci were very strong. Ceci once again logs more ice time than Karlsson.

Saturday night against Leafs is huge game for both teams.
- spatso

Was tilted in the sens Favour. Pittsburgh played the night before (8pm game).. they discussed on the pre-game that the Pens probably got into Ottawa after 2am. then play b2b is a tough ask.

Lets hope the Leafs can do better on b2b

Hopefully the Leafs have something left in the tank after tonight's game to do the Saturday game justice. Didn't look like Pittsburgh had much left after playing the night before against a very good Washington team.
- walshyleafsfan

Yeah, that must be it................. and Pittsburgh's third period domination of the Senators must have been because they were exhausted, and Ottawa was capitalizing on that????

Yeah, that must be it................. and Pittsburgh's third period domination of the Senators must have been because they were exhausted, and Ottawa was capitalizing on that????


- D0PPELGANGER

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/...n-stats-analysis-1.365877

Score effects are a well-researched and well-studied phenomenon. Teams with leads late in the game will often play to protect the lead and sacrifice most attempts at generating offence; teams trailing late will generally abandon their defensive structure in an attempt to equalize. It's an intuitive relationship, one that's a constant risk/reward bet for coaches and players.

Was tilted in the sens Favour. Pittsburgh played the night before (8pm game).. they discussed on the pre-game that the Pens probably got into Ottawa after 2am. then play b2b is a tough ask.

Lets hope the Leafs can do better on b2b
- senstroll

You too? Making preemptive excuses is not usually your style.

The Penguins had just as much time to "rest" as any other team that plays on b2b games, and they did not have a morning skate.

Besides, all you leaf fans have been extolling the virtues of having such a young team......... are you suggesting they're not in good enough condition to play on b2b nights?

I've seen it too often with the Senators over the past two seasons, they win a game vs a superior team, such as the defending Stanley Cup champs last night, and then they lose the next game, vs a team they should beat, like Saturday vs the leafs.......... this has happened a lot last season, and couple of times this season........ so as much as you think it'll be a cake walk for the Sens, I see it as a good test for the Sens to not "let down" after "getting up" for a game vs the defending Stanley Cup champs, besides with your assertion that the leafs are in a better situation than the Senators, this game should be a lot more competitive than your misgivings about b2b games for such a young team.

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/score-effects-provide-critical-context-in-stats-analysis-1.365877
- senstroll

Senators outshot the Pens in third period.

Did you watch the game?

You too? Making preemptive excuses is not usually your style.

The Penguins had just as much time to "rest" as any other team that plays on b2b games, and they did not have a morning skate.

Besides, all you leaf fans have been extolling the virtues of having such a young team......... are you suggesting they're not in good enough condition to play on b2b nights?

I've seen it too often with the Senators over the past two seasons, they win a game vs a superior team, such as the defending Stanley Cup champs last night, and then they lose the next game, vs a team they should beat, like Saturday vs the leafs.......... this has happened a lot last season, and couple of times this season........ so as much as you think it'll be a cake walk for the Sens, I see it as a good test for the Sens to not "let down" after "getting up" for a game vs the defending Stanley Cup champs, besides with your assertion that the leafs are in a better situation than the Senators, this game should be a lot more competitive than your misgivings about b2b games for such a young team.
- D0PPELGANGER

none of that matters..its nothing new, Team playing b2b vs a rested team (a team that did not play the night before) preform poorly ..there are lots of articles on it with lots of Data.

Now over a season if all teams had roughly the same amount it wouldnt really matter too much..but thats not the case

Ottawa gets a good schedule and the Leafs not so much when it comes tob2b

Senators outshot the Pens in third period.

Did you watch the game?
- D0PPELGANGER

No I didnt watch

Shots were 9-8 for the sens..sure.. but Shot attempts at 5v5 were 17-10 (62.96%) for the Pens

You posted the graph showing the Pens has more attempts in the 3rd

Phaneuf had another great game. He deserves more credit. Fun to see Phaneuf and Kessel yukking it up during the warm up.

Yeah, that must be it................. and Pittsburgh's third period domination of the Senators must have been because they were exhausted, and Ottawa was capitalizing on that????


- D0PPELGANGER

Sens were protecting their lead.

It's really not rocket appliances.

none of that matters..its nothing new, Team playing b2b vs a rested team (a team that did not play the night before) preform poorly ..there are lots of articles on it with lots of Data.

Now over a season if all teams had roughly the same amount it wouldnt really matter too much..but thats not the case

Ottawa gets a good schedule and the Leafs not so much when it comes tob2b


- senstroll

I don't get how the league can make the swing's so dramatic. Obviously it's hard to schedule all the teams each year, but the Leafs having to play a rested team while tired 14 times and the Sens only having to do it 7 times is frankly bizarre. I mean twice as many? C'mon.

Also, if they want to make these rivalries they keep talking bout, how do you have divisional match ups were the Leafs play the night before and the Sens and Habs don't.

What rivalry are you creating when one team is still divulging what happened the night before and the other is sipping pina coladas?

Sens were protecting their lead.

It's really not rocket appliances.
- walshyleafsfan

I find it hard to believe someone can watch hockey for what I assume is decades and not understand this

No I didnt watch

Shots were 9-8 for the sens..sure.. but Shot attempts at 5v5 were 17-10 (62.96%) for the Pens

You posted the graph showing the Pens has more attempts in the 3rd
- senstroll

Thank you. You've Proved the point I've been making for a couple of years now.

You just can't rely only on "advanced Stats" A.K.A. "analytics" to give you a true representation of how a team performed, or how a player, a line, a goaltender or a defensive pairing performed in a game.

Watching the game you gives way more insight into a game, than "advanced Stats" or "analytics" ever will. They can confirm things that you saw in a game................ nothing beats the eyeball test.

I don't get how the league can make the swing's so dramatic. Obviously it's hard to schedule all the teams each year, but the Leafs having to play a rested team while tired 14 times and the Sens only having to do it 7 times is frankly bizarre. I mean twice as many? C'mon.

Also, if they want to make these rivalries they keep talking bout, how do you have divisional match ups were the Leafs play the night before and the Sens and Habs don't.

What rivalry are you creating when one team is still divulging what happened the night before and the other is sipping pina coladas?
- walshyleafsfan

I agree

in the NHL today its so close between teams a few points makes a big difference and this certainly will affect it.

Thank you. You've Proved the point I've been making for a couple of years now.

You just can't rely only on "advanced Stats" A.K.A. "analytics" to give you a true representation of how a team performed, or how a player, a line, a goaltender or a defensive pairing performed in a game.

Watching the game you gives way more insight into a game, than "advanced Stats" or "analytics" ever will. They can confirm things that you saw in a game................ nothing beats the eyeball test.
- D0PPELGANGER

lol wut?

You posted this

Yeah, that must be it................. and Pittsburgh's third period domination of the Senators must have been because they were exhausted, and Ottawa was capitalizing on that????

the stats I posted confirm that Pittsburgh had more attempts IE possession etc..

You then said but the Sens outshot them in the 3rd...

My problem with the eye test only.. is people are (frank)ing nuts and biased and flawed...see what they want interpret what they want ..ignore what they want

looking at the stats for me has removed a lot of my biases...I clearly had them and watching hockey for 25 years without looking at these numbers tells me I really miss a lot in a game

I agree

in the NHL today its so close between teams a few points makes a big difference and this certainly will affect it.
- senstroll

You know, I'd understand 1, 2 or maybe even 3 more disadvantaged back to back situations that other teams, but double the amount?

It's not as if Toronto is a hard place to get to for 25 teams in the league. It's more evidence the narrative "Bettman and the NHL loves the Leafs" is totally wrong.