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Forums :: Vancouver Canucks :: Canucks Prospects 2011-2012
Author Message
Boinker
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 10.24.2010

Feb 22 @ 7:05 PM ET
That of course means he's playing against 3rd and 4th line talent. I've yet to see a statistical argument that specifically accounts for that. Tyler Bozak, trailing 1:57 per point, plays more often against top lines and for example more often against the other teams powerplay (Bozak doesn't play much - a shift a game - but Hodgson doesn't play any), so that's a time on the ice with virtually no chance to produce.
39 of 60 minutes a game Sedin and Kesler are on the ice. This means Hodgson gets less time than the average leafs centre to produce, but it also means that he spends less time than the average leafs centre matched up against a top 6 line - there aren't many forward lines logging more than 20 minutes a game. I think Higgins-Hodgson-Hansen is probably a better offensive line than many of the bottom 6 lines in the league, and that's often their competition.

Not an anti-Hodgson argument, just a possible source of statistical error.

- Morris


I agree with you about Hodgson playing against third pairings but top 4 defenseman get way more minutes than the bottom pairing. Cody probably sees equal amounts of second and third pairings. Bozak plays more first/second and he probably gets out againt the third pairing a fair amount. Also your wrong about Hansen/Higgins Cody has barely played on that line. Cody has mostly played with our current 4th line wingers and Hansen. He's played a lot with the call ups that come up to the team.
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:10 PM ET
I agree with you about Hodgson playing against third pairings but top 4 defenseman get way more minutes than the bottom pairing. Cody probably sees equal amounts of second and third pairings. Bozak plays more first/second and he probably gets out againt the third pairing a fair amount. Also your wrong about Hansen/Higgins Cody has barely played on that line. Cody has mostly played with our current 4th line wingers and Hansen. He's played a lot with the call ups that come up to the team.
- Boinker

Sorry I was going by a line combination website and I wasn't certain of the accuracy.

Also, check my edit for interesting things to say about Bozak's vs Hodgson's PP time.
natowar
Vancouver Canucks
Location: BC
Joined: 01.27.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:11 PM ET
It's someone else's contention, not mine. My explanation clearly stated that numbers aren't everything. Again, in my opinion the discussion is whether Hodgson belongs in the top 6 of the leafs. Which plainly equates to: Is he better than at least two of Grabovski, Connolly, and Bozak?

For argument's sake: If Hodgson maintained his points/minute, he'd produce*

with grabovski's minutes: 43 points in 60 games (grabs has 40 in 54)
with Connolly's Minutes: 42 points in 60 games (connolly has 27 in 48)
With Bozak's Minutes: 46 points in 60 games (Bozak has 36 in 51)

*First, I took Cody's points scored divided by his total TOI to get his points per minute. Then I used TOI/G, not total TOI because the number of games played was uneven. Maybe total TOI would be more fair. Also note that obviously all three leafs aren't playing top 6 minutes!

So, in essence quite comparable or slightly better offensively. (Bozak 42 pro-rated, Connolly 34 pro-rated, Grabs 44 pro-rated).

- Morris


I'm thinking that while Toronto would certainly welcome him onto their roster and I believe he would play himself intop top 6 shortly, he's still a rookie.

Kessel, as a rookie put up 29 and 37 points in his first two seasons. Hodgson has outscored his rookie season already in fewer games played.

Grabovski had 48 points , Hodgson's will be closer to those.

Connoly had 41, Hodgson will certainly pass him

Bozak's season end rookie stats were equal exactly to what Hodgson already has now.

While , yes you can say that as of this moment he would be rated in a fight for 3rd centre on Toronto, that would change quickly.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:12 PM ET
That of course means he's playing against 3rd and 4th line talent. I've yet to see a statistical argument that specifically accounts for that. Tyler Bozak, trailing 1:57 per point, plays more often against top lines and for example more often against the other teams powerplay (Bozak doesn't play much - a shift a game - but Hodgson doesn't play any), so that's a time on the ice with virtually no chance to produce.
39 of 60 minutes a game Sedin and Kesler are on the ice. This means Hodgson gets less time than the average leafs centre to produce, but it also means that he spends less time than the average leafs centre matched up against a top 6 line - there aren't many forward lines logging more than 20 minutes a game. I think Higgins-Hodgson-Hansen is probably a better offensive line than many of the bottom 6 lines in the league, and that's often their competition.

Not an anti-Hodgson argument, just a possible source of statistical error.

EDIT: Now that I think about it, it's only fair to point in the disparity in PP time. Bozak has more PP minutes for sure, and a better opportunity to score, theoretically.

My two takes on this:
1) On the PP, Bozak plays with essentially the same players he plays with even strength, while on the Vancouver PP, Hodgson plays with Burrows and Booth (1st and 2nd liners). So considering those minutes, Hodgson isn't playing with 3rd and 4th line wingers.
2) Without be able to fetch specific stats on specific units, the Vancouver PP has had just over 10 more minutes than Toronto on the season, and is 3.2% more successful (It's the best in the league, Toronto is 9th). Thus Bozak has more minutes on the Powerplay than Hodgson, but Vancouver's time is more valuable and has produced more. Hodgson, personally, has scored 10 of 32 points on the PP and Bozak has scored 10 of his 36.

- Morris


Yes, statistically speaking, given that the Canucks don't trust Hodgson's defensive play enough for the PK, simply taking ones TOI and projecting it out isn't very smart, given that he's comparing against players that are all trusted with that sort of duty. In fact, even when you filter that out, he's getting pretty close to the same amount of PP time, but less ES time than most others. Particularly as a % of ice time, which would skew things in favour of Hodgson even further, when you're trying to project things.

It's quite clear he would be a Marlie. Plainly obvious for anyone to see.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:12 PM ET
I'm thinking that while Toronto would certainly welcome him onto their roster and I believe he would play himself intop top 6 shortly, he's still a rookie.

Kessel, as a rookie put up 29 and 37 points in his first two seasons. Hodgson has outscored his rookie season already in fewer games played.

Grabovski had 48 points , Hodgson's will be closer to those.

Connoly had 41, Hodgson will certainly pass him

Bozak's season end rookie stats were equal exactly to what Hodgson already has now.

While , yes you can say that as of this moment he would be rated in a fight for 3rd centre on Toronto, that would change quickly.

- natowar


Kessel was 18. That's such a retarded comparison. Surely you're not that stupid, are you?
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:14 PM ET
I'm thinking that while Toronto would certainly welcome him onto their roster and I believe he would play himself intop top 6 shortly, he's still a rookie.

Kessel, as a rookie put up 29 and 37 points in his first two seasons. Hodgson has outscored his rookie season already in fewer games played.

Grabovski had 48 points , Hodgson's will be closer to those.

Connoly had 41, Hodgson will certainly pass him

Bozak's season end rookie stats were equal exactly to what Hodgson already has now.

While , yes you can say that as of this moment he would be rated in a fight for 3rd centre on Toronto, that would change quickly.

- natowar


And obviously you and I have different opinions than Prock about the go-ahead (Hodgson has impressed me), I'd venture he'd say in the future Hodgson would fight it out with Kadri and Colborne if on the leafs. Or for that matter, Grabovski, who's reportedly re-signing.
natowar
Vancouver Canucks
Location: BC
Joined: 01.27.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:27 PM ET
Kessel was 18. That's such a retarded comparison. Surely you're not that stupid, are you?
- prock


You're the guy who's all about offensive numbers. It was his first season , it's Hodgson's first season. Hodgson lost nealy two years to injury.

If I were you with all of your failed predictions and laughable bias, I certainly wouldn't throw the "retard" word at anyone.

You left out that Bozak was 3 years OLDER than Hodgson is in his rookie season

Grabovski was 25 in his rookie season, So tell me loser? how stupid are YOU?
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:47 PM ET
You're the guy who's all about offensive numbers. It was his first season , it's Hodgson's first season. Hodgson lost nealy two years to injury.

If I were you with all of your failed predictions and laughable bias, I certainly wouldn't throw the "retard" word at anyone.

You left out that Bozak was 3 years OLDER than Hodgson is in his rookie season

Grabovski was 25 in his rookie season, So tell me loser? how stupid are YOU?

- natowar

yes, those are fair comments in response to Grabs and Bozak. Just as it is with Kessel.

As to where they are now.... Hodgson for the Marlies.
natowar
Vancouver Canucks
Location: BC
Joined: 01.27.2007

Feb 22 @ 7:56 PM ET
yes, those are fair comments in response to Grabs and Bozak. Just as it is with Kessel.

As to where they are now.... Hodgson for the Marlies.

- prock


I agree. The way Toronto manages their team that's what I'd expect them to do.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 8:00 PM ET
I agree. The way Toronto manages their team that's what I'd expect them to do.
- natowar


Yeah, you've gotta earn your ice with the Leafs. None of this "they're not giving him a chance" BS.
Boinker
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 10.24.2010

Feb 22 @ 8:23 PM ET
yes, those are fair comments in response to Grabs and Bozak. Just as it is with Kessel.

As to where they are now.... Hodgson for the Marlies.

- prock


He'd be battling it out with Grabovsky for first line center right now. You don't even watch the Canucks. How's Kadri and Schenn?...What a couple of busts. Both those guys wouldn't even be on the Canucks. Kadri is a flake and Schenn has lead in his feet. Toronto sucks. You're a loser.
Boinker
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 10.24.2010

Feb 22 @ 8:24 PM ET
Yeah, you've gotta earn your ice with the Leafs. None of this "they're not giving him a chance" BS.
- prock


Are you seriously mentally ill? You have issues. Look at who's in front of Hodgson in the depth chart. I'd like to see Bozak on the Canucks lol. He wouldn't even make the team. The Canucks have the best pk players in the league. Kesler, Burrows, Malhotra, Hansen, Raymond, Lapierre and Higgins. Why would they put a rookie on the pk with that lineup? Hodgson has the best hockey sense, other than the twins. And he's a rookie.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 8:39 PM ET
He'd be battling it out with Grabovsky for first line center right now. You don't even watch the Canucks. How's Kadri and Schenn?...What a couple of busts. Both those guys wouldn't even be on the Canucks. Kadri is a flake and Schenn has lead in his feet. Toronto sucks. You're a loser.
- Boinker


You clearly don't watch the Leafs. He'd be with the Marlies.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 8:40 PM ET
Are you seriously mentally ill? You have issues. Look at who's in front of Hodgson in the depth chart. I'd like to see Bozak on the Canucks lol. He wouldn't even make the team. The Canucks have the best pk players in the league. Kesler, Burrows, Malhotra, Hansen, Raymond, Lapierre and Higgins. Why would they put a rookie on the pk with that lineup? Hodgson has the best hockey sense, other than the twins. And he's a rookie.
- Boinker



Weird. He's the bestest ever, according to you guys, second only to the Sedins, but the coaching staff sits him on the bench most of the game.
Boinker
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 10.24.2010

Feb 22 @ 8:45 PM ET
Weird. He's the bestest ever, according to you guys, second only to the Sedins, but the coaching staff sits him on the bench most of the game.
- prock


Get a life.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 8:57 PM ET
Get a life.
- Boinker


Why u mad? I'm just pointing out what you're saying makes no sense.
bureforearthsprez
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 08.14.2009

Feb 22 @ 9:14 PM ET
Weird. He's the bestest ever, according to you guys, second only to the Sedins, but the coaching staff sits him on the bench most of the game.
- prock

To the everlasting frustration of Canuck fans.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 9:20 PM ET
To the everlasting frustration of Canuck fans.
- bureforearthsprez


Have you ever considered there may be a reason for it?
bureforearthsprez
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 08.14.2009

Feb 22 @ 9:46 PM ET
Coach is always right.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 9:52 PM ET
Coach is always right.
- bureforearthsprez


No, that's definitely not the case. But these guys don't do things for no reason either.
boonerbuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Not Quesnel, BC
Joined: 10.11.2005

Feb 22 @ 9:58 PM ET
All kinds of of twisty turning stats here from the naysayers. How is Cody given credit for playing with 1st and second line players when he is lucky to see them for a whole minute a night on the PP per game only?

His only consistant linemate is Hansen. A checker. It is what it is. Call it an excuse...but it's fact. Bozak isnt even ahead of Cody....in his 3rd year. How he is in any arguement about better depth or the player that would keep Cody out of their line up is pure comedy.

Prock, you are by far the most unreasonable and ignorant fan on here. I even watched your fellow fans say you are the most over the top pest on their forum. Whats wrong? Wear out your welcome there again?
bureforearthsprez
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 08.14.2009

Feb 22 @ 10:01 PM ET
No coach is always right.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 22 @ 10:10 PM ET
All kinds of of twisty turning stats here from the naysayers. How is Cody given credit for playing with 1st and second line players when he is lucky to see them for a whole minute a night on the PP per game only?

His only consistant linemate is Hansen. A checker. It is what it is. Call it an excuse...but it's fact. Bozak isnt even ahead of Cody....in his 3rd year. How he is in any arguement about better depth or the player that would keep Cody out of their line up is pure comedy.

Prock, you are by far the most unreasonable and ignorant fan on here. I even watched your fellow fans say you are the most over the top pest on their forum. Whats wrong? Wear out your welcome there again?

- boonerbuck


You're the one doing anything you can to twist the stats so they don't look like there aren't five or six rookies with more points. Like all but one of those guys is playing a significant role on his teams PK. Like they aren't a far more key part of their team.

You're the worst one at trying to twist stats here, because the real stats say he hasn't contributed as much as several other rookies. That's all that has to be said. Five or six rookies have done more. Try tell me that's not true. Go for it.
boonerbuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Not Quesnel, BC
Joined: 10.11.2005

Feb 22 @ 10:54 PM ET
You're the one doing anything you can to twist the stats so they don't look like there aren't five or six rookies with more points. Like all but one of those guys is playing a significant role on his teams PK. Like they aren't a far more key part of their team.

You're the worst one at trying to twist stats here, because the real stats say he hasn't contributed as much as several other rookies. That's all that has to be said. Five or six rookies have done more. Try tell me that's not true. Go for it.

- prock


The funny thing is I've never denied his stats. You are just making arguemnts based on things that havent been said. You are desperate to keep your baseless trolling alive. This is all you've done on this topic for years....

Bozak cannot even pull ahead of Hodgson with 5 minutes extra a game. Kadri cannot make your team. Keep arguing why....they are the very *excuses* you citicize? Nothing has come around to prove you right, but you troll on....

Cody is a very very long shot if RNH fisnishes the season healthy...no one denies it. At this point, the others he's competing with havent left him far behind. It's not a stretch that he'll be right there...still. He cannot realisticly be the favorite in his current situation and ice time. It can't be denied. These are all reasonable points and you can just keep running your mouth like your efforts are going to be the difference. You are a attention whore.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 23 @ 10:46 AM ET
The funny thing is I've never denied his stats. You are just making arguemnts based on things that havent been said. You are desperate to keep your baseless trolling alive. This is all you've done on this topic for years....

Bozak cannot even pull ahead of Hodgson with 5 minutes extra a game. Kadri cannot make your team. Keep arguing why....they are the very *excuses* you citicize? Nothing has come around to prove you right, but you troll on....

Cody is a very very long shot if RNH fisnishes the season healthy...no one denies it. At this point, the others he's competing with havent left him far behind. It's not a stretch that he'll be right there...still. He cannot realisticly be the favorite in his current situation and ice time. It can't be denied. These are all reasonable points and you can just keep running your mouth like your efforts are going to be the difference. You are a attention whore.

- boonerbuck


You're trying to change the subject. Why would Hodgson be considered when he's 5th in scoring, and behind the 4 kids in front of him in virtually every known other category (short of Nugent Hopkins, who will likely outscore him by a wide margin, assuming he returns)? Why would he be remotely considered when he's contributed so much less, overall, then several other rookies? Why would he even be in the discussion?

Answer - he shouldn't be. 35 point rookie forwards who do not contribute to the team in other ways aren't remotely close to being in Calder discussions.
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