I wish some of the people who argue with you would remember that too...
- Mr_Squeaks

but for some... hockeybuzz is their life. Shut it down and you would destroy their reality

I love my Leafs but.... it's still just a game.
- prock

You dont say [

You dont say
- top shelf 15[

They were only playing well before because half their roster was playing above their heads.
- prock

I guess the same could be said of the Blackhawks too eh?

I guess the same could be said of the Blackhawks too eh?
- Doppleganger

did you just compare your team to the Stanley cup winning blackhawks

did you just compare your team to the Stanley cup winning blackhawks
- nightmare3020

No I compared their slumps, and their drops in the standings.

No I compared their slumps, and their drops in the standings.
- Doppleganger

the difference is, one of the two teams has a very good roster.

the difference is, one of the two teams has a very good roster.
- prock

and the similarity is that the majority of teams go through a "slump" during the season, doesn't matter who has a better roster or not, it happens.

Don't get me wrong, the Blackhawks are still firmly in the playoff mix, while Ottawa's playoff chances have taken a big hit.
http://www.sportsclubstat...anceWillMakePlayoffs.html

But you have to admit that Ottawa's roster is better than your (before the season started) predictions suggestions were. You know this to be true, and your dismal predictions are all here for everyone to read.

Ottawa roster is playing at a 545P% to this point..............which is not really "miles and miles" behind the .574P% that your leafs are playing at currently.

and the similarity is that the majority of teams go through a "slump" during the season, doesn't matter who has a better roster or not, it happens.

Don't get me wrong, the Blackhawks are still firmly in the playoff mix, while Ottawa's playoff chances have taken a big hit.
http://www.sportsclubstat...anceWillMakePlayoffs.html

But you have to admit that Ottawa's roster is better than your (before the season started) predictions suggestions were. You know this to be true, and your dismal predictions are all here for everyone to read.

Ottawa roster is playing at a 545P% to this point..............which is not really "miles and miles" behind the .574P% that your leafs are playing at currently.
- Doppleganger

Admit the roster is better than I thought? Ummm, do you get WHY I'm saying they've massively overachieved? The roster is terrible. While I wouldn't expect them to lose like this the entire season, it's a hell of a lot closer to what I would expect than what we saw out of them for about 30 games.

Honestly.... Take the last, say, three seasons. Count up the number of players that are in the middle of the best year they've had in those years. If not, career highs. Count up the number of players that are healthy for the first time in those years.

I bet that covers a decent portion of the roster. Is there a single player that has been achieving LESS than expected?

How often does that happen?

Textbook example of an overachieving team.

Admit the roster is better than I thought? Ummm, do you get WHY I'm saying they've massively overachieved? The roster is terrible. While I wouldn't expect them to lose like this the entire season, it's a hell of a lot closer to what I would expect than what we saw out of them for about 30 games.

Honestly.... Take the last, say, three seasons. Count up the number of players that are in the middle of the best year they've had in those years. If not, career highs. Count up the number of players that are healthy for the first time in those years.

I bet that covers a decent portion of the roster. Is there a single player that has been achieving LESS than expected?

How often does that happen? Again Lupal hasnt overacheived,how about phaneuf he has had a resurgence wouldnt you say.Grabs has stayed away from being injured same thing for kessel.All teams have players that go up and down perfect example for the leafs would be Kulimen good player bad season
- prock[/b]Textbook example of an overachieving team.

Again Lupal hasnt overacheived,how about phaneuf he has had a resurgence wouldnt you say.Grabs has stayed away from being injured same thing for kessel.All teams have players that go up and down perfect example for the leafs would be Kulimen good player bad season
- top shelf 15

Apparently you're not getting this.

Yes, sometimes players overperform, sometimes they underperform. Yes, that is happening with the Leafs. Kulemin, Connolly, Reimer due to injury, Schenn, underperforming, Kessel, Lupul, Phaneuf, overachieving. They've had injuries, but nothing excessing. All said and done, that leaves them about where they should be.

the Sens? There is a long list of players overachieving. A pretty good portion of the roster. Are there ANY key players that have underachieved to this point of the season? I don't think so. Additionally, they have among the fewest games lost to injury in the entire league. Only Carolina and Dallas have missed less. For a roster with a lot of guys that tend to spend time on the IR (Spezza, Michalek, Gonchar, Alfredsson, Kuba), that's incredibly unlikely. To sum it up, EVERYTHING has gone right for the Sens, and for them to not be in the basement, that's exactly what had to happen.

Apparently you're not getting this.

Yes, sometimes players overperform, sometimes they underperform. Yes, that is happening with the Leafs. Kulemin, Connolly, Reimer due to injury, Schenn, underperforming, Kessel, Lupul, Phaneuf, overachieving. They've had injuries, but nothing excessing. All said and done, that leaves them about where they should be.

the Sens? There is a long list of players overachieving. A pretty good portion of the roster. Are there ANY key players that have underachieved to this point of the season? I don't think so. Additionally, they have among the fewest games lost to injury in the entire league. Only Carolina and Dallas have missed less. For a roster with a lot of guys that tend to spend time on the IR (Spezza, Michalek, Gonchar, Alfredsson, Kuba), that's incredibly unlikely. To sum it up, EVERYTHING has gone right for the Sens, and for them to not be in the basement, that's exactly what had to happen.
- prock

I have it just fine ,i said at the start of the season,that not much really seperated this team from Toronto,s and I have been proven correct for the most part.I find it funny how everything has gone right for the sens to be where they are .And the leafs just are doing it with a team that is LIGHT YEARS ahead .Truth is both teams are nothing special really one is just about 13 mil cheaper than the other

and the similarity is that the majority of teams go through a "slump" during the season, doesn't matter who has a better roster or not, it happens.

Don't get me wrong, the Blackhawks are still firmly in the playoff mix, while Ottawa's playoff chances have taken a big hit.
http://www.sportsclubstat...anceWillMakePlayoffs.html

But you have to admit that Ottawa's roster is better than your (before the season started) predictions suggestions were. You know this to be true, and your dismal predictions are all here for everyone to read.

Ottawa roster is playing at a 545P% to this point..............which is not really "miles and miles" behind the .574P% that your leafs are playing at currently.
- Doppleganger

I still do not understand why you take any of these "Chances the team makes the playoff" stats seriously for any team.

Its a really stupid thing that does not correspond at all to the odds they make it, as you can see by the constant changing of the odds throughout the season (from around 10% - 90%)

You reallly can't cite this as any kind of proof.. Just saying

I have it just fine ,i said at the start of the season,that not much really seperated this team from Toronto,s and I have been proven correct for the most part.I find it funny how everything has gone right for the sens to be where they are .And the leafs just are doing it with a team that is LIGHT YEARS ahead .Truth is both teams are nothing special really one is just about 13 mil cheaper than the other
- top shelf 15

Right, and yet, just about every player on the Sens roster is doing more than expected, or actually staying healthy for the first time in years.

Why don't you just go through it, player by player, yourself, and just think about it. Honestly try to use your brain. Look at every Sens player, and ask yourself, could you possibly have expected more, or are they doing everything you could have hoped.

Right, and yet, just about every player on the Sens roster is doing more than expected, or actually staying healthy for the first time in years.

Why don't you just go through it, player by player, yourself, and just think about it. Honestly try to use your brain. Look at every Sens player, and ask yourself, could you possibly have expected more, or are they doing everything you could have hoped.
- prock

And why dont you do the same ,there are still a bunch of question marks surrounding THE SECOND YOUNGEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE Maybe we should trade for a bunch of spare part 25 and 26 year olds then we could have such a mighty roster like the leafs Where is you low 20 year old elite tallent??How is BB going to be able to keep his entire team intact with 3 mil in cap space ???Let me guess he is going to trade his way to a rebuild its worked pretty good so far wouldnt u say

And why dont you do the same ,there are still a bunch of question marks surrounding THE SECOND YOUNGEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE Maybe we should trade for a bunch of spare part 25 and 26 year olds then we could have such a mighty roster like the leafs Where is you low 20 year old elite tallent??How is BB going to be able to keep his entire team intact with 3 mil in cap space ???Let me guess he is going to trade his way to a rebuild its worked pretty good so far wouldnt u say
- top shelf 15

You know what, if you're going to refuse to use your brain, I'm not continuing this conversation. You simply refuse to use logic.

You know what, if you're going to refuse to use your brain, I'm not continuing this conversation. You simply refuse to use logic.
- prock

You stated these idiotic comments ,not me. Using terms like light years and 2nd youngest team in the league to cut down the sens is logical

You stated these idiotic comments ,not me. Using terms like light years and 2nd youngest team in the league to cut down the sens is logical
- top shelf 15

Clearly you can't comprehend the statements made in this thread, so I'm gonna move on from speaking with you, until you can start to use your brain.

I still do not understand why you take any of these "Chances the team makes the playoff" stats seriously for any team.

Its a really stupid thing that does not correspond at all to the odds they make it, as you can see by the constant changing of the odds throughout the season (from around 10% - 90%)

You reallly can't cite this as any kind of proof.. Just saying
- mfreedman

No offense, but you sound like a lot of other naysayers when this site (CSS) came to light in these forums. It all started a few seasons back when the leafs lost their first 10 (plus?) games to start the season and CSS counted them out of the playoffs by mid December.

I made this post on December 11 @ 4:54 PM ET of that season.

The five points mean nothing when you look at how many teams they have ahead of them in the conference. There are to many teams to pass to get up into a playoff seed.

These teams (ahead of them) are playing each other (most of the time) and one team will always come away with two points, and the other may get one. It's a mathematical Everest for them to overcome with too few game remaining in the season.

The leafs have only a 4.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Don't be fooled by the point spread, look at the total picture.
- Doppleganger

http://www.hockeybuzz.com...hread.php?thread_id=71753

If people simply looked at the points, and see a team 8 or 10 points back, and conclude that that if the team only needs to win four or five game and BAM!!! they're right back in the playoff picture.

Well that's not the facts, because the more teams they have to pass to climb back into the playoffs, the tougher it is because all these team are also playing and accumulating points.

As it turned out, the projections made at CSS were pretty close at the end of that season.

No offense, but you sound like a lot of other naysayers when this site (CSS) came to light in these forums. It all started a few seasons back when the leafs lost their first 10 (plus?) games to start the season and CSS counted them out of the playoffs by mid December.

I made this post on December 11 @ 4:54 PM ET of that season.
- Doppleganger

Way to completely miss the point..

If this site was accurate at all, the numbers wouldn't change so drastically on a regular basis.

There are many examples of teams with a 90% chance dropping to below 50%, then returning to 90%.

Pointless site. You would have a better idea if you just took the PPG of each tema and extended it to the end of the season.

Way to completely miss the point..

If this site was accurate at all, the numbers wouldn't change so drastically on a regular basis.

There are many examples of teams with a 90% chance dropping to below 50%, then returning to 90%.

Pointless site. You would have a better idea if you just took the PPG of each tema and extended it to the end of the season.
- mfreedman

Again, there are a number of us that have monitored this site for a few years now, and although not perfect, it is pretty good in predicting which teams have no chance of making the playoffs from about mid December on.

for example this site predicted on December 20th, that these teams had the lowest "chances of making the playoffs" in the Eastern Conference.

Buffalo Sabres
Ottawa Senators
Winnipeg Jets
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning
New York Islanders
Carolina Hurricanes


And as of today it is predicting these teams as having the lowest "chances of making the playoffs" in the Eastern Conference.

Ottawa Senators
Winnipeg Jets
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning
New York Islanders
Buffalo Sabres
Carolina Hurricanes


Although the rankings are a little different, they are the same seven teams. So not as useless as you may like to think it is.

Way to completely miss the point..

If this site was accurate at all, the numbers wouldn't change so drastically on a regular basis.

There are many examples of teams with a 90% chance dropping to below 50%, then returning to 90%.

Pointless site. You would have a better idea if you just took the PPG of each tema and extended it to the end of the season.
- mfreedman

Well if you lead your division and rank 3rd, your chances of making the playoffs are pretty good. But if the 2nd team in your division bounces you and your team ends up 8th in the conference standings, it explains the shift from 90% to 50%.

Well if you lead your division and rank 3rd, your chances of making the playoffs are pretty good. But if the 2nd team in your division bounces you and your team ends up 8th in the conference standings, it explains the shift from 90% to 50%.
- Pecafan Fan

Also it takes into account the winners and losers of games involving the teams ahead and behind of a team (lets say the leafs) in the standings.

Whether or not these teams acquire points, or don't, affects the chances (of the leafs) as well.

It's not only what the leafs do in their own games.

If a team behind the leafs, wins a game, (while the leafs lose on the same day) and has a few games in hand (on the leafs) you'll see a bigger change in each teams "chances" than if it was the leafs that had more games in hand on the team behind them.

Well if you lead your division and rank 3rd, your chances of making the playoffs are pretty good. But if the 2nd team in your division bounces you and your team ends up 8th in the conference standings, it explains the shift from 90% to 50%.
- Pecafan Fan

It actually takes that into account.

It actually takes that into account.
- prock

That was my point...

Not saying the site is 100% bulletproof, but I think it paints a pretty realistic picture in terms probabilities.