Since most of what I've read on HB these days in terms of the Avalanche has been nothing short of laughable since Musick left, lets try having a real discussion.

We got the first pick the draft. So who's it gonna be?

Do we go with what we need and take Jones? Do we go with our gut and take MacKinnon? What say you Avs fans?

If it were my call, and frankly I'm glad it isn't because it's a tough one, I'd go with MacKinnon. I know we have a d corps that's flat out embarrassing. Thing is, I don't think we're close enough to contending to use this opportunity to draft first overall based on need. It's no secret that it's much harder to draft and develop star defensemen. Just take a look at EJ. I also know we have three very solid centers in Stastny, Duchene and O'Reilly. If MacKinnon is anywhere near as good an NHL player as he has been in the CHL this guy is the type you can't pass up. Hey, I'm no expert. I'm just a fan but that's my take. What do you guys think?

I'm going to have to agree with you. Mackinnon is the better choice in my mind. I think we take him at 1 which makes Stastny expendable. We could then package Stastny and flip him to Phoenix for Yandle or another already proven d-man.

Or, on the other hand, do we try to package up Stastny for the second overall pick and hold the top 2 picks. Jones and Mackinnon would be pretty sweet

I am guessing it will be MacKinnon. The kid is just that good. He dominated when it counted, and you can't teach the "clutch" factor. Jones could be the next Pronger, or he could be another EJ. EJ is a solid NHL player, he just didn't live up to the billing of the 1st overall pick. You can find and develop top tier defenseman in later rounds: Chara- 3rd round, PK Subban- 2nd Round, Letang- 3rd Round, Yandle- 4th Round Weber- 2nd round.

As far as the speculation of the Avs getting the 2nd overall pick in addition to the 1st overall, it is a nice dream but likely won't happen. You would have to offer up a ton of prospects/draft picks to pry the 2nd overall pick away from Florida. Something to the effect of: Duchene, Barrie or Elliott, and our 2014 1st + just to get the conversation started. Too much risk, especially for a rebuilding franchise with essentially 2 rookie co-GM's.

That being said, anyone else feel like Roy has an ace up his sleeve? Not a blockbuster for the 2nd overall, but something else..........

There's no way we're getting the first two picks. We'd have to move so much just to even consider the possibility. As you pointed out, it would have to include Duchene. In no way shape or form do I think we should give up Duchene.. so that said I can't see us getting both Jones and MacKinnon.

Also I totally agree about guys taken outside of the top 10 picks as far as defenseman go seeming to be the way to go. If you look at the top 5 D in the league (and this is just an off the top of the head list so don't kill me if I miss someone, I'm an Avs fan so I watched like 10 games this year sober) Chara, Letang, Keith, Weber, Suter, Doughty, Karlsson ..none of them were top 10 picks. Does it mean anything, who knows? I'd still take MacKinnon.

Another thing that the Avs should consider is how many truly "elite" centers have been taken out of the top 10 picks, or even out of the 1st round? You have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Getzlaf to name a few off the top of my head. Getzlaf was 19th overall, and Datsyuk/Zetterberg were late round lottery hits. I am sure I missed a few, but I digress.

However, the prospect of Jones/Siemens as a top D pairing for the next decade plus is very appealing. IF they both are as good as their draft positions and IF they develop, you could have the next Pronger/Niedermayer pairing. That is a tough prospect for any team to pass up. But, Siemens isn't a lock to be NHL ready this year and Jones probably should be given at least one more year in the minors before being called up to the show........and Roy's desire to win will not wait long for developmental prospects.

The Avs can get MacKinnon, keep him on a lower line so he can adjust to the NHL game with Duchene and O'Reilly ahead of him, and if he won't resign, trade O'Reilly around the deadline. I don't know if it gets much better down the middle than Duchene/MacKinnon for the next 10+ years!

I think Stastny and Jones are all but gone. I don't think either fit into Roy's system and we have needs that could be filled by trading them. Not sure about Varlamov either, Roy may not have the patience for some of the goals he is prone to giving up. Roy may prefer a more experienced #1 and draft a "goalie of the future" this year. MacKinnon's teammate perhaps...........

I agree, despite the fact that we have 3 very good centers, I wouldn't consider any of them 'elite' . Duchene may change my mind over the next few seasons, and I sure hope he does, but MacKinnon presents us with the opportunity to take someone truly 'elite'. It's not rocket science. There's two positions you can draft a player as high as we can this season. 1. a team that is poised to win now and 2. a team that is building for the future. I believe we are the in the second category. If were ready to compete next season I would say we should draft based on needs. We aren't. So, in that regard, I think we should draft based on getting the best player available and try as best we can to fill in our needs elsewhere.

That is a true story, Duchene is not an "elite" center....yet. He has shown flashes, but needs to find a higher level of consistency to reach that level.

I say grab MacKinnon, trade Varly, Staz, Jones, and a conditional 2014 2nd round pick to Buf for Miller and (insert salary dump here, Leino perhaps) and turn the 1st pick in the 2nd round into a solid contributor, (like Radar) and we should be a playoff contender. Not Cup contender, but playoff contender. Miller has stated he wants to go west, and I struggle to think of a team outside of MAYBE the Sharks who need an upgrade in the net. Staz and Miller have virtually the same cap number, both are FA ad of next season (Miller re-signing with the Avs would be the conditional pick) Jones and Leino are 20-30 goal scorers who need a change of scenery, and Varly could compete to be #1 in Buf with Enroth being and RFA and never taking on a true #1 goaltender roll.

Phoenix is in limbo, Ducks are good, LA has a ton of goalies, Oilers are good, but have trouble keeping players they don't draft, Van has issues of their own in net, Flames are in a full blown rebuild mode, Stars have their #1 and drafted Campbell in the 1st round a few years ago.......it makes sense. I get the feeling from Roy that he wants a stronger, more proven presence in net.

Or see if the Coyotes would move Yandle plus for Staz, Varly, a 2nd plus, we could grab Backstrom or another "bridge" goalie and draft a developmental goalie. Either way, I don't see Staz, Jones, or Varly fitting in on Roy's team.

Anyone else get that feeling, or am I out to lunch?

We take Jones. (6'4, bomb of a shot, winner at every level, best defensive skater in a long time...maybe ever...not a guy I wanna miss)
Move stazz for yandle.
Sign a third line center.
Duchene runs 1st line.
ROR runs 2nd line.
Varly played well even with THE WORST D-CORE in the league. Until he underperforms with a legit defense, he is our guy.
UFA or maybe hishon as 3rd line center.
Have jones play ONE more year in Juniors.
Buyout Jones. Gotta cut our loses here.
Offensively, lines could be anything in the next two years but on the defensive end I see this in two years:

Jones-Seimens
Johnson-Yandle
Barrie-Elliott
Wilson

And that folks could one day soon be the best d-core in the show.
Defense wins championships.

We take Jones. (6'4, bomb of a shot, winner at every level, best defensive skater in a long time...maybe ever...not a guy I wanna miss)
Move stazz for yandle.
Sign a third line center.
Duchene runs 1st line.
ROR runs 2nd line.
Varly played well even with THE WORST D-CORE in the league. Until he underperforms with a legit defense, he is our guy.
UFA or maybe hishon as 3rd line center.
Have jones play ONE more year in Juniors.
Buyout Jones. Gotta cut our loses here.
Offensively, lines could be anything in the next two years but on the defensive end I see this in two years:


- goavsgo10

Jones-Seimens
Johnson-Yandle
Barrie-Elliott
Wilson

And that folks could one day soon be the best d-core in the show.
Defense wins championships.

I agree with this 100%. You look at every Cup winning team and there is a strong D core that has at least one "shut down" pair that eliminates the top line or top players on the other team.

Just based on the last decade of "can't miss" D prospects that have been taken in the top 5....the Avs need to be very careful. You don't want to pass on a Stamkos or Crosby-lite for another "can't miss" kid who does not pan out. Whoever the pick is SHOULD be given 1 more season in the minors to grow. If Jones is as good as advertised, then it is a no-brainer for the team. But proceed with caution and tempered expectations.

As far as Varly goes, I can appreciate that our D has been THAT BAD. However, there seem to be too many instances of "soft goals" or "he'd like to have that one back" this season, and even last season. He does have a reasonable cap hit and is still young, so I think the team will give him another chance. With the team hiring a Full-Time Goaltender Coach, hopefully we can eliminate those issues.......

I'm going to have to agree with you. Mackinnon is the better choice in my mind. I think we take him at 1 which makes Stastny expendable. We could then package Stastny and flip him to Phoenix for Yandle or another already proven d-man.

Or, on the other hand, do we try to package up Stastny for the second overall pick and hold the top 2 picks. Jones and Mackinnon would be pretty sweet
- DavidTooms

I hate to break it to you, but a guy who's been scoring at barely more than a 50 point clip the last few years, getting paid over $6M, with one year left on his contract isn't going to command much in a trade.

According to the Denver Post, Sakic has gone public with the direction of the team in regards to the #1 Overall Pick. They will pass on Jones, the #1 ranked prospect, and select one of the 3 top forwards: MacKinnon, Drouin, or Barkov. IF this report is true and not just "playing chess" to up a trade offer from other teams, I think there is really only 2 choices: Barkov or MacKinnon. Barkov has size (6' 3" 205) at only 17 years old and could grow into a Getzlaf type #1 center. MacKinnon has the "it" factor and is generally considered neck-and-neck with Jones......he is also only 17.

Here is how I think the season will play out: Staz will be traded on or before draft day. Probably in a package for an established NHL Defenseman. The team will try and trade David Jones, which may or may not happen. The team takes either MacKinnon or Barkov (probably MacKinnon) and HOPEFULLY will keep the pick in the minors for 1 more season. Matty and Radar are your #1/#2 Centers, which allows you to hopefully showcase Radar's strengths and maximize his trade value. Trade Radar around the trade deadline (not saying I want to see him go, but the offer sheet fiasco will likely deter the Avs from getting a new deal done) and get a strong asset for him. By the time the '14-'15 season rolls around MacKinnon and Siemens will be ready to step into #1 rolls. They may be ready sooner rather than later, but for the sake of argument, I won't rush any prospects.

I feel like the team is trying to follow the model of our glory days when we had Super Joe and Peter the Great down the middle........That model works well for the Penguins, although their Cup aspirations keep falling short, they are in it every year.

By my count we are also short on some wingers with jones and hedgy gone.
I am warming up to the idea of drafting Mackinnon though. Mackinnon with Landeskog

For everyone who has suggested Stastny for Yandle..come on.. Are you kidding?

According to the Denver Post, Sakic has gone public with the direction of the team in regards to the #1 Overall Pick. They will pass on Jones, the #1 ranked prospect, and select one of the 3 top forwards: MacKinnon, Drouin, or Barkov. IF this report is true and not just "playing chess" to up a trade offer from other teams, I think there is really only 2 choices: Barkov or MacKinnon. Barkov has size (6' 3" 205) at only 17 years old and could grow into a Getzlaf type #1 center. MacKinnon has the "it" factor and is generally considered neck-and-neck with Jones......he is also only 17.

Here is how I think the season will play out: Staz will be traded on or before draft day. Probably in a package for an established NHL Defenseman. The team will try and trade David Jones, which may or may not happen. The team takes either MacKinnon or Barkov (probably MacKinnon) and HOPEFULLY will keep the pick in the minors for 1 more season. Matty and Radar are your #1/#2 Centers, which allows you to hopefully showcase Radar's strengths and maximize his trade value. Trade Radar around the trade deadline (not saying I want to see him go, but the offer sheet fiasco will likely deter the Avs from getting a new deal done) and get a strong asset for him. By the time the '14-'15 season rolls around MacKinnon and Siemens will be ready to step into #1 rolls. They may be ready sooner rather than later, but for the sake of argument, I won't rush any prospects.

I feel like the team is trying to follow the model of our glory days when we had Super Joe and Peter the Great down the middle........That model works well for the Penguins, although their Cup aspirations keep falling short, they are in it every year.
- TR1PL3T

I agree with most of what you wrote, I do hope we keep O'Reilly around though. He's my favorite guy on the team and I was hoping the change in management and coaching might change the relationship between him and the team but who knows? I definitely think it's gotta be MacKinnon as far as who we draft. It will be interesting to see what we get for Stastny if we do go that route though. It might not even happen at the draft because as you said, I'd keep MacKinnon in the minors for another year and I gotta think Joe Sakic will be at least slightly hesitant to trade a kid he helped develop. Just my two cents.

Everyday I find it more and more likely that we will draft Mackinnon. He is a franchise center and with him and Duchene as our one-two punch I see it as a smart long term move.

If we do draft Mac I see us trading Stastny at the draft. I would like to see us package Stastny+ for either Yandle or Vanek.

While I do love O'Reilly I feel we will be able to get a great return for him. I love having 3 great centers but it may be necessary to trade him to fill another hole or two. We would need a top 6 winger or top pairing d-man coming our way in the deal. O'Reilly is young, has a great two way game and has tremendous upside. That being said I think a lot of love was lost between him and management...not to mention the fans as well.

One thing is for certain, June 30th will be an exciting day for avs fans!

Does anybody realistically think we can pry someone like Keith Yandle or Vanek with a package starting with Paul Stastny? This season alone, Yandle had more goals and points than Stastny. He's a defenseman. Now I know Stastny's really underachieved the past few years and that he has some serious upside when he feels like it. I think we should wait to trade him next year to see if he can increase his trade value. We need a Yandle..but I don't think we have the expendable pieces to get him right now.

Does anybody realistically think we can pry someone like Keith Yandle or Vanek with a package starting with Paul Stastny? This season alone, Yandle had more goals and points than Stastny. He's a defenseman. Now I know Stastny's really underachieved the past few years and that he has some serious upside when he feels like it. I think we should wait to trade him next year to see if he can increase his trade value. We need a Yandle..but I don't think we have the expendable pieces to get him right now.
- dtaylor1923

Make it O'reilly then

Make it O'reilly then
- goavsgo10

O'Reilly can't be traded until Feb. 28..

O'Reilly can't be traded until Feb. 28..
- dtaylor1923

Oh that is right. Damn calgarys picks would have been great and Mackinnon could have filled the hole RoR left and more.