Jeremy Laura: Holland to Utah, thoughts on Seider and the team

I'll go against the grain and say the Seider extension makes me a little nervous. I'm not mad about it, at all, and still believe he can be an all-star caliber defender, but he's not nearly as much of a slam dunk as Raymond.

It's concerning to me that he's been in the league three years and his best season by a pretty clear margin was his rookie year.

I get that he got absolutely brutal usage this last season, playing the hardest defensive minutes of anybody in the entire league while also being stuck on a team that plays crap system D in general. That is going to have a negative impact on your output regardless of how good you are.

But playing really hard minutes doesn't automatically mean you're a great player. If Seider is truly the elite player we all want him to be he's got to find ways to win these kinds of matchups more than he has.

I tend to think that if you had put a 23-year-old Cale Makar or Adam Fox on the Red Wings last year and stuck them with Seider's minutes, they might not have lit up the league but they probably would have been able to get out of the zone with possession at a much better rate than Seider has been able to manage. Elite players manage to rise above bad matchups and bad usage a significant percentage of the time, simply because they're almost always the best player on the ice. Seider so far has not been able to do this.

Right now I see Seider as an "okay first pair/No. 2 caliber defender" stuck in a miserable situation. With this contract he now has the 13th-highest AAV among all NHL defenders. For him to be close to worth that much I think at least one of the following two things needs to happen:

(1) he gets a lot better
(2) the coach stops leaning on him exclusively as the designated shutdown stay-at-home guy and actually puts him in a position to succeed

I am not optimistic about #2 for this year because the team defense is still awful and Lalonde is still Lalonde. And I'm concerned that forcing Seider to keep playing this way and in these situations is going to have a negative impact on his long-term potential.

Don't get me wrong, I still love Seider and still have a lot of hope. I just also have a lot of uncertainty. I think there's a good chance he still becomes a borderline Norris-caliber defender. But I also think there's a realistic chance he becomes the next, like, Dion Phaneuf.

I think I would have been more comfortable with a bridge deal, honestly.

I'll go against the grain and say the Seider extension makes me a little nervous. I'm not mad about it, at all, and still believe he can be an all-star caliber defender, but he's not nearly as much of a slam dunk as Raymond.

It's concerning to me that he's been in the league three years and his best season by a pretty clear margin was his rookie year.

I get that he got absolutely brutal usage this last season, playing the hardest defensive minutes of anybody in the entire league while also being stuck on a team that plays crap system D in general. That is going to have a negative impact on your output regardless of how good you are.

But playing really hard minutes doesn't automatically mean you're a great player. If Seider is truly the elite player we all want him to be he's got to find ways to win these kinds of matchups more than he has.

I tend to think that if you had put a 23-year-old Cale Makar or Adam Fox on the Red Wings last year and stuck them with Seider's minutes, they might not have lit up the league but they probably would have been able to get out of the zone with possession at a much better rate than Seider has been able to manage. Elite players manage to rise above bad matchups and bad usage a significant percentage of the time, simply because they're almost always the best player on the ice. Seider so far has not been able to do this.

Right now I see Seider as an "okay first pair/No. 2 caliber defender" stuck in a miserable situation. With this contract he now has the 13th-highest AAV among all NHL defenders. For him to be close to worth that much I think at least one of the following two things needs to happen:

(1) he gets a lot better
(2) the coach stops leaning on him exclusively as the designated shutdown stay-at-home guy and actually puts him in a position to succeed

I am not optimistic about #2 for this year because the team defense is still awful and Lalonde is still Lalonde. And I'm concerned that forcing Seider to keep playing this way and in these situations is going to have a negative impact on his long-term potential.

Don't get me wrong, I still love Seider and still have a lot of hope. I just also have a lot of uncertainty. I think there's a good chance he still becomes a borderline Norris-caliber defender. But I also think there's a realistic chance he becomes the next, like, Dion Phaneuf.

I think I would have been more comfortable with a bridge deal, honestly.
- Sven22

My disagreement on this is essentially there isn’t support for Mo as a linemate. They know what they want to turn him into and we essentially have an aging core. I think comparing a scoring winger to a Dzone starting Dman is an almost impossible comparison. Raymond’s scoring was really hot at the last stretch, but that kind of winger is going to see a lot less responsibility and has a completely different job. I think going bridge on Seider would have jacked up the cost and feel like he’s locked in at a very good number. Totally understand where you’re at, but Dion wasn’t near the skater and puck handler Moritz has already shown himself to be. After one season in GR, if the next year hadn’t been a shut down year, he was going to be on the main roster. I’m actually a bit concerned that so much of Raymond’s goal production came late in the year and right now I’m not loving having he and Debrincat on the same line. All of that said, these two picks are still very high on my list and both have shown maturity beyond their years.

Did not Seider get a lot more PP time in his 1st year? And any PP time was on the #2PP afterwards. I have read that some suggested he get less PP time to keep his next contract amount down! Also, being he is also the best defensive D-man, he bails the team out with the toughest assignments and plays the most TOI. He is well worth his new salary. It is up to Stevie to get some more support in his D core to help him out!

My disagreement on this is essentially there isn’t support for Mo as a linemate. They know what they want to turn him into and we essentially have an aging core. I think comparing a scoring winger to a Dzone starting Dman is an almost impossible comparison. Raymond’s scoring was really hot at the last stretch, but that kind of winger is going to see a lot less responsibility and has a completely different job. I think going bridge on Seider would have jacked up the cost and feel like he’s locked in at a very good number. Totally understand where you’re at, but Dion wasn’t near the skater and puck handler Moritz has already shown himself to be. After one season in GR, if the next year hadn’t been a shut down year, he was going to be on the main roster. I’m actually a bit concerned that so much of Raymond’s goal production came late in the year and right now I’m not loving having he and Debrincat on the same line. All of that said, these two picks are still very high on my list and both have shown maturity beyond their years.
- Jeremy Laura

I get where you're coming from too.

I guess if I were to summarize, it's that Seider is now getting paid like a solid No. 1, and for the Red Wings to be competitive for a championship they are probably going to need him to be one of the 5-10 best defenders on planet earth at his peak. Seider is not there yet and I'm a lot less sure he's going to get there than I was two years ago. He's two years older and hasn't really been able to improve much past where he was as a rookie.

I get that he is basically the only guy on the entire D unit better than a third-pairing guy, and is constantly getting hung out to dry by his forwards to boot. That's what makes him so hard to project. He might be the toughest player in the entire league to try to disentangle his individual impact from his usage/teammate/competition impact.

But, again, if Seider is actually a top 10 defender in the world, I think he would have found a way to get a bit more done than he has. He's got bad linemates by NHL standards but it's not like he's playing with high schoolers. These are NHL veterans who deserve to be in the show, even if they're playing higher up in the lineup than they should be. An elite player and four below-average/borderline NHLers might not blow the doors of the opposition but they also probably shouldn't be hemmed in and on the ropes as much as Seider & co have been.

Seider is a really good player! I expect him to have a long and successful NHL career. But the Wings need him to be great. Or at the very least, they need probably both of Edvinsson and ASP to develop into legit first-pair caliber guys too.

I get where you're coming from too.

I guess if I were to summarize, it's that Seider is now getting paid like a solid No. 1, and for the Red Wings to be competitive for a championship they are probably going to need him to be one of the 5-10 best defenders on planet earth at his peak. Seider is not there yet and I'm a lot less sure he's going to get there than I was two years ago. He's two years older and hasn't really been able to improve much past where he was as a rookie.

I get that he has no support from his teammates. He is basically the only guy on the entire D unit better than a third-pairing guy, and is constantly getting hung out to dry by his forwards to boot. That's what makes him so hard to project. He might be the toughest player in the entire league to try to disentangle his individual impact from his usage/teammate/competition impact.

But, again, if Seider is actually a top 10 defender in the world, I think he would have found a way to get a bit more done than he has. He's got bad linemates by NHL standards but it's not like he's playing with high schoolers. These are NHL veterans who deserve to be in the show, even if they're playing higher up in the lineup than they should be. An elite player and four below-average/borderline NHLers might not blow the doors of the opposition but they also probably shouldn't be hemmed in and on the ropes as much as Seider & co have been.

Seider is a really good player! I expect him to have a long and successful NHL career. But the Wings need him to be great. Or at the very least, they need probably both of Edvinsson and ASP to develop into legit first-pair caliber guys too.
- Sven22

Ok, I know where you’re coming from. I think he has and will continue to climb the ranks on a team that has to rebuild almost the entire D core of what they have now. His attitude and ability to me project incredibly well, but it is hard to say if he’s going to be a top 10 defender in the world. I look at this as the ultimate team sport. This will all unfold over time and I’ll either be right or wrong. Happy to own it either way. The age that he’s at on a team that is inserting prospects amongst essentially spare parts and a D core that is all over the map is a tough go. There’s not a Vasilevsky. There’s not even a mentor on the ice that can outplay him at his position. My hope is that he has a lot of talks with Lidstrom. As for contention, you’re right. We need world class talent on the blue line, in the net, and in the top 6. The goal for this group is try to get in. The division has two teams in Florida that played in the last 5 SCPO and have 3 cups. To the north is the regular season scoring machine in Toronto. So realistically they’re looking at a wild card spot right now IF they get in. I want to see the group on the ice, but I do feel really good about how Mo projects and the years they got for the price.

"Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider isn’t at training camp Friday after inking his seven-year, $59.85MM deal yesterday, per Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. He’s still in his native Germany but is scheduled to fly to Detroit tomorrow. He’ll link up with the team on Tuesday. The Wings’ first preseason game isn’t until Wednesday in Chicago, so he’ll be technically available to play, but that would be a tight turnaround."

Ok, I know where you’re coming from. I think he has and will continue to climb the ranks on a team that has to rebuild almost the entire D core of what they have now. His attitude and ability to me project incredibly well, but it is hard to say if he’s going to be a top 10 defender in the world. I look at this as the ultimate team sport. This will all unfold over time and I’ll either be right or wrong. Happy to own it either way. The age that he’s at on a team that is inserting prospects amongst essentially spare parts and a D core that is all over the map is a tough go. There’s not a Vasilevsky. There’s not even a mentor on the ice that can outplay him at his position. My hope is that he has a lot of talks with Lidstrom. As for contention, you’re right. We need world class talent on the blue line, in the net, and in the top 6. The goal for this group is try to get in. The division has two teams in Florida that played in the last 5 SCPO and have 3 cups. To the north is the regular season scoring machine in Toronto. So realistically they’re looking at a wild card spot right now IF they get in. I want to see the group on the ice, but I do feel really good about how Mo projects and the years they got for the price.
- Jeremy Laura

Lidstrom, for over half of his career, used to "push" an incoming forward with the blade of his stick on the hip to get him off balance. He would be called for that in the last 10-12 years.

Lidstrom, for over half of his career, used to "push" an incoming forward with the blade of his stick on the hip to get him off balance. He would be called for that in the last 10-12 years.
- HenryHockey

Yeah, there were players who would slap someone on the shoulder to throw them off. There was a lot more inside contact that could offset an attacking forward

Not a great update. Mo never came over according to PHR. He’s on his way but this would explain the lack of presser and isn’t going to bode well with jumping in and starting strong.

Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider isn’t at training camp Friday after inking his seven-year, $59.85MM deal yesterday, per Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. He’s still in his native Germany but is scheduled to fly to Detroit tomorrow. He’ll link up with the team on Tuesday. The Wings’ first preseason game isn’t until Wednesday in Chicago, so he’ll be technically available to play, but that would be a tight turnaround.

Claude Lemieux, getting his kicks having Seider stay in Germany until his contract is signed, as opposed to being in metro Detroit ready to go.

Regarding the changes we saw with Mo from year one, in the next two years. Mo seemed be be playing a simpler game. He wasn’t leveling people with reverse checks like year one. He also wasn’t on the first power play unit. I liked the year one style he played. But it was pretty clear he was given instructions to simply his game to be a shutdown D. I love his game. Wish we could have more snarl, but honestly, I think he is not a dirty player and he is evolving his game.

Claude Lemieux, getting his kicks having Seider stay in Germany until his contract is signed, as opposed to being in metro Detroit ready to go.

Regarding the changes we saw with Mo from year one, in the next two years. Mo seemed be be playing a simpler game. He wasn’t leveling people with reverse checks like year one. He also wasn’t on the first power play unit. I liked the year one style he played. But it was pretty clear he was given instructions to simply his game to be a shutdown D. I love his game. Wish we could have more snarl, but honestly, I think he is not a dirty player and he is evolving his game.
- NC_Scott

I have tried to avoid feeling that bad faith tactics were employed, but agents having their clients stay overseas until it’s totally finished sometimes frustrates me. I’ll leave it at that. If you can get to YouTube, Edvinsson had a decent interview and he said the same as what you’re alluding to. Being asked “not to try and be a hero on every shift”, simplify his game. To his credit, Petry is going to dinners and hanging out with Eddy a bunch. That’s what I really miss about our cup years. Kid comes in and can just soak up the room. How many 2002 people are GMs, VPs, scouts etc. I may watch that DVD tonight. The 2002 cup video is just fun for me. Pav on a line with Hull. The 3rd line. I feel like a spoiled kid with that team.

Claude Lemieux, getting his kicks having Seider stay in Germany until his contract is signed, as opposed to being in metro Detroit ready to go.

Regarding the changes we saw with Mo from year one, in the next two years. Mo seemed be be playing a simpler game. He wasn’t leveling people with reverse checks like year one. He also wasn’t on the first power play unit. I liked the year one style he played. But it was pretty clear he was given instructions to simply his game to be a shutdown D. I love his game. Wish we could have more snarl, but honestly, I think he is not a dirty player and he is evolving his game.
- NC_Scott

I think this is almost certainly correct -- that Mo has been coached to play a specific way that is simpler, more conservative, more "safe."

I also believe that this is a serious mistake and has had the opposite effect of what was intended.

Seider had a great rookie season considering his age and minutes played.

In his second year, he was given really tough minutes but still had a positive isolated impact (e.g., his raw numbers were below average but higher than you would expect from an average NHL defender with the same usage).

Last year, he had excessively, historically difficult usage and really struggled. Even the public model with the most aggressive usage/competition adjustment (The Athletic) rated his defensive impact as below expectation even after accounting for the borderline homicidal difficulty of his role.

The newer, safer, more boring Seider might be what the coaching staff wants to see but the actual results have gotten worse, not better.

On the bright side, it gives me some hope that a change in usage or coaching tactics could result in a quick and dramatic reversal of fortune. Whether that realistically happens while Lalonde is still in charge is anybody's guess.

I think this is almost certainly correct -- that Mo has been coached to play a specific way that is simpler, more conservative, more "safe."

I also believe that this is a serious mistake and has had the opposite effect of what was intended.

Seider had a great rookie season considering his age and minutes played.

In his second year, he was given really tough minutes but still had a positive isolated impact (e.g., his raw numbers were below average but higher than you would expect from an average NHL defender with the same usage).

Last year, he had excessively, historically difficult usage and really struggled. Even the public model with the most aggressive usage/competition adjustment (The Athletic) rated his defensive impact as below expectation even after accounting for the borderline homicidal difficulty of his role.

The newer, safer, more boring Seider might be what the coaching staff wants to see but the actual results have gotten worse, not better.

On the bright side, it gives me some hope that a change in usage or coaching tactics could result in a quick and dramatic reversal of fortune. Whether that realistically happens while Lalonde is still in charge is anybody's guess.
- Sven22

My hope (and it was really well put H2) is that the forward core is responsible enough defensively to allow some slack in the reins. I cannot imagine Lidstrom watching and seeing the abilities Mo can show with his skating and size and not chime in. Our GAA has to go down. This is what really concerns me if Raymond and Debrincat are on the same line. Raymond I would trust way more to take on the extra ice (not a slam on Debrincat, just personal opinion). Our D can’t be freed up if the forwards aren’t rotating into the slot. I know I’m oversimplifying but I hate 2 on 1, 2 on 0 situations because the D pinched and the forwards didn’t communicate they were changing or didn’t read/communicate the shift. Man I wish Pav was on staff. Loved watching him talk to the kids earlier in the summer.

Great post, one of your best.
So happy we are on our way and the future looks so bright. I missed the combined salaries of Seider and Raymond by $375,000 and two years. Now if only my Danielson making the team vision comes true. I would love to see him center Kane and Terasenko there is so much he can learn from them.