Jeremy Laura: Seider has spoken, and a tip of the cap to the Flyers

This is where understanding context becomes very relevant. Seider gets very challenging partner and zone deployment compared to many other top young dmen. Maybe he doesn't have the same elite offensive aptitude some other comparables have, but defensively he's probably among the best if not the very best. And probably all those other dmen would suffer offensive production declines in his situation.

This is where understanding context becomes very relevant. Seider gets very challenging partner and zone deployment compared to many other top young dmen. Maybe he doesn't have the same elite offensive aptitude some other comparables have, but defensively he's probably among the best if not the very best. And probably all those other dmen would suffer offensive production declines in his situation.
- jfkst1

I completely agree. To hear that he’s getting grief over the $ was a new one on me

Raymonds's contract is paying him mostly for "potential". Raymond has had only 1 very good year.
Seider's contract is not only for "potential" but 2 1/2 years as the #1 defender on the Wings.

I don't think anyone is ignoring context in Seider's case. Pretty much everybody worth listening to acknowledges that he played insanely hard minutes last season and is therefore much better than the raw, unadjusted numbers suggest he is.

The relevant question isn't whether Seider is better than his numbers (he very clearly is), it's how much better. And that question does not have an easy answer. His usage was so heavily skewed that there's not really a whole lot of recent precedent that we could use to provide a comparable or way to gut check the theoretical outputs of the models. There's also the fact that Seider is 23, which means there's a decent chance he could still improve significantly (but also a decent risk that he's already plateaued).

Long story short, I still think Seider has elite potential but there's a whole lot of uncertainty about where he ultimately ends up. If I had to throw out some (admittedly rough, don't get too hung up here) comps:

Best case: Next Hedman
Medium case: Next Pietrangelo
Worst case: Next Seth Jones

Any of those outcomes seem realistic to me.

I don't think anyone is ignoring context in Seider's case. Pretty much everybody worth listening to acknowledges that he played insanely hard minutes last season and is therefore much better than the raw, unadjusted numbers suggest he is.

The relevant question isn't whether Seider is better than his numbers (he very clearly is), it's how much better. And that question does not have an easy answer. His usage was so heavily skewed that there's not really a whole lot of recent precedent that we could use to provide a comparable or way to gut check the theoretical outputs of the models. There's also the fact that Seider is 23, which means there's a decent chance he could still improve significantly (but also a decent risk that he's already plateaued).

Long story short, I still think Seider has elite potential but there's a whole lot of uncertainty about where he ultimately ends up. If I had to throw out some (admittedly rough, don't get too hung up here) comps:

Best case: Next Hedman
Medium case: Next Pietrangelo
Worst case: Next Seth Jones

Any of those outcomes seem realistic to me.
- Sven22

I’m just going off of his statements from the presser. If you haven’t watched it through, it’s a quick hit where he compares scrutiny of his draft position that he heard from others to criticism he’s getting now. I don’t know where or by whom, just relaying what he said.

I’m just going off of his statements from the presser. If you haven’t watched it through, it’s a quick hit where he compares scrutiny of his draft position that he heard from others to criticism he’s getting now. I don’t know where or by whom, just relaying what he said.
- Jeremy Laura

I didn't watch the presser. I'm just trying to provide some nuance to the discussion about Seider's results vs. usage. Seider is pretty much the current front line of the age old "stats vs eye test" argument, which inevitably gets people riled up. But I don't think it has to be one or the other. I think the truth up to this point is somewhere in the middle, and now we have to wait and see whether Seider has another gear (or two) left to engage.

For what it's worth, I think I would still rank Seider as No. 3 in his draft class so far (Hughes, Boldy). That could go down a bit (or he might overtake Boldy) depending on how the next couple of years shake down.

Raymonds's contract is paying him mostly for "potential". Raymond has had only 1 very good year.
Seider's contract is not only for "potential" but 2 1/2 years as the #1 defender on the Wings.

I disagree. He had a great rookie campaign. Scoring 57 points as a rookie is a phenomenal rookie season. Better than Stutzle's rookie year, one point behind Stutzle's sophomore season. Yeah, his +/- sucked, but he was on a horrible team. He "only" scored 45 in his second year, after every opponent had a full year of video on him, and it's definitely not unusual to back off in year two. The key is, can they re-invent themselves now that every team knows their quirks and habits? He did just that with a 72 point third year as a 21 year old. There were a crap ton of NHL players who made far more than he did, and many who made more than his new contract, who didn't score 72 points, so of course he's being paid for potential, as is nearly every young player in the entire league.

I didn't watch the presser. I'm just trying to provide some nuance to the discussion about Seider's results vs. usage. Seider is pretty much the current front line of the age old "stats vs eye test" argument, which inevitably gets people riled up. But I don't think it has to be one or the other. I think the truth up to this point is somewhere in the middle, and now we have to wait and see whether Seider has another gear (or two) left to engage.

For what it's worth, I think I would still rank Seider as No. 3 in his draft class so far (Hughes, Boldy). That could go down a bit (or he might overtake Boldy) depending on how the next couple of years shake down.
- Sven22

Totally appreciate the nuance. I love watching the kid play. When he gets O zone time, he seems to be able to get to pucks at the blue line when we see a lot of Dmen just watch it skitter be (or have seen on this crew in the past several years). I do think his draft stock has “risen” in the redraft circles. I guess I jumped in to make it clear, I don’t think he was overcompensated at all. He came in lower than what I began to guess. I think he’s the (at this point) natural choice for the next to wear the ‘C’ when that time comes. Important piece for this rebuild

Best case: Next Hedman
Medium case: Next Pietrangelo
Worst case: Next Seth Jones

Any of those outcomes seem realistic to me.
- Sven22

I'd put any of those outcomes as plenty acceptable given the contract. Even on the low end as a Seth Jones caliber player that is probably best as a 2/3 dman rather than a true number one dman is more than fair value. Hence why I find the criticisms rather unfounded. Look at a case with Hronek where he gets much more favorable deployment in VAN and his production gets far more efficient.

I'd put any of those outcomes as plenty acceptable given the contract. Even on the low end as a Seth Jones caliber player that is probably best as a 2/3 dman rather than a true number one dman is more than fair value. Hence why I find the criticisms rather unfounded. Look at a case with Hronek where he gets much more favorable deployment in VAN and his production gets far more efficient.
- jfkst1

Again, I’m taking Mo’s word from the presser that he’s already gotten grief over his new deal. I haven’t heard anything like that at this point. In honesty, I feel like he held back on what he could have gotten

I'd put any of those outcomes as plenty acceptable given the contract. Even on the low end as a Seth Jones caliber player that is probably best as a 2/3 dman rather than a true number one dman is more than fair value. Hence why I find the criticisms rather unfounded. Look at a case with Hronek where he gets much more favorable deployment in VAN and his production gets far more efficient.
- jfkst1

I tend to think of Seth Jones as a No. 3/4 at best, but I understand where you're coming from.

The way I roughly think of them is:

Hedman/best case: Elite two-way defender.

Pietrangelo/medium case: Solid two-way top pair defender but not generally considered one of the absolute best. (I'm admittedly probably underrating Pietrangelo here; think more like Pietrangelo today rather than at his peak.)

Jones/worst case: Physically talented but flawed second pairing defender (great eye test but tends to get caved in when given No. 1 minutes and tough defensive responsibilities).

Seider is a steal if door No. 1, close to fair if door No. 2, pretty big overpay if door No. 3.